Ukraine probably had big plans for February 24, 2023, the anniversary of the Russian war of aggression against their country. Kiev planned to hit Russia in the heart and attack in the capital, Moscow. Major General Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the country’s military intelligence (HUR), instructed one of his officers to “prepare for massive attacks on February 24 (…) with everything the HUR has.” It says in a secret Report of the USA, reports the ”
Washington Post
“.
According to the report, Ukrainian strategists even considered a TNT attack in the Black Sea port city of Novorossiysk. It would have been a largely symbolic operation, but would have demonstrated Ukraine’s ability to penetrate deep into Russian territory.
Ukraine postponed attacks at the last moment
But it was Ukraine’s most powerful ally, the United States, who prevented the attacks on Russia.
As leaked documents show, the American secret services secretly monitored the Ukrainians’ plans. The US has long feared that attacks within Russia could trigger an aggressive response from the Kremlin.
The influence of the powerful partners seems to have had an effect, because just two days before the anniversary, on February 22, a secret CIA report said: The HUR “at Washington’s request has agreed to postpone the attacks on Moscow”.
The secret reports that have now become known are said to be among the various documents that a 21-year-old member of the American National Guard shared on a gaming server.
The US does not want a direct conflict with Russia
For Ukraine, it is a dilemma that is difficult to avoid: dependent on the massive support of allies, who do not want to further escalate the war or expand it beyond the region, Ukraine’s plan to take the war into enemy territory can be done , difficult to realize.
The US wants to avoid a direct confrontation with Russia. The fear in the White House is that Vladimir Putin might not even need American forces, and that an attack on Russian territory with American weapons might be enough for the Russian president to resort to heavier weapons. Say, tactical nuclear weapons.
Mysterious attacks from Russian territory
It is possible that Volodymyr Zelenskyy nevertheless found a way to take the war to Russian territory and thus shake the Russians’ sense of security. Mysterious explosions and drone strikes have been occurring in Russia for months. Just a week after the anniversary, Moscow publicly accused Kiev of attempting to conduct drone strikes on infrastructure in Russia, including near the capital.
Ukraine deliberately does not confirm that the attacks can be traced back to HUR operations, but military personnel are often vague when it comes to the attacks.
Budanov recently told the Washington Post that the attacks on Russian territory have “shattered illusions of security.” “There are people planting explosives. There are drones. Until Ukraine’s territorial integrity is restored, it will be within Russia problems.”
Danger of China getting involved
The US may continue to try to prevent Ukrainian plans on targets abroad. Also, because otherwise another powerful opponent could intervene: China.
A Ukrainian attack on Moscow with weapons provided by the United States or NATO would be taken by China as a sign that “Washington is directly responsible for the escalation of the conflict,” according to one of the secret reports. For China, this could be the trigger to supply Russia with weapons. This should not be in the interests of the United States or its European partners – and ultimately probably not in the interests of Ukraine either.
