The job offers in the United States They fell for the third straight month in March and layoffs rose to a more than two-year high, suggesting some weakness in the labor market that could help the Federal Reserve in its fight against inflation.
Still, the labor market remains tight, and the Labor Department’s monthly job openings and turnover (JOLTS) report released Tuesday showed 1.6 job openings for every jobless person in March, compared with 1.7 February.
Federal Reserve officials, who kicked off a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, are closely watching this index.
The US central bank is expected to increase its benchmark interest rate overnight another 25 basis points, to a range of 5.00%-5.25%, on Wednesday, before making a possible pause.
“The decline in the job vacancy to unemployment ratio over the past three months represents a reduction in excess demand for labor that the Federal Reserve will welcome,” said Conrad DeQuadros, economic adviser at Brean Capital.
“However, with the ratio still higher than at any time prior to November 2021, the labor market remains tight by historical standards.”
Job vacancies, a measure of the demand for labor, fell 384,000 to 9.59 million on the last day of March, the lowest level since April 2021. Data for February was revised up to show 9.97 million vacancies. employment instead of 9.93 million.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.775 million job openings.
Job offers have fallen by 1.6 million since December.
Hiring barely changed, standing at 6.1 million, which kept the hiring rate at 4.0 percent. The layoffs they increased from 248,000 to 1.8 million, the highest level since December 2020.
With the constant decline in job offers and the increase in layoffs, fewer and fewer people are voluntarily resigning from their jobs. Resignations fell to 3.85 million, the lowest level since May 2021, from 3.98 million in February.
The resignation rate, which is considered a measure of the labor market confidence It dipped to 2.5% from 2.6% in February, below the 2.9-3.0% range seen in late 2021 and early 2022, when job turnover was at its peak.
“The vacancy and resignation rates remain historically high, and the layoff rate remains historically low, but all three are moving in the direction of a cooler labor market,” said Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan. .
“Signs of labor market weakness will not be a game changer at tomorrow’s Fed meeting, although they do suggest that the pent-up amount of policy tightening is starting to have the desired effect on business labor demand.”
