Self-determination referendum, relations with Paris… What does the return to power of the separatists in French Polynesia change?

15,000 kilometers from Paris, in the heart of the Pacific Ocean, the future of a small piece of the Republic may be at stake. Ten years after having already presided over the destinies of French Polynesia, the separatists are back at the helm. In obtaining 44.3% of the votesthe fencerti Tavini won the second round of territorial electionsMonday, May 1.

This result opens a new chapter in the history of relations between France and Papeete. Several questions arise, particularly on self-determination. Franceinfo responds to four of them.

Is this a first step towards independence?

“It’s the only way if we want to eradicate the poverty that is eating away at our country.” As soon as the results were announced, Oscar Temaru, the leader of the Tavini independence list, reaffirmed his desire to cut ties with France.

But behind these words, there is another reality. Semir Al roses, professor of political science at the University of French Polynesia, distinguishes two lines awithin the Tavini party itself. The traditionalists, in a hurry to free themselves from Paris, are embodied by an old guard who does not forgive the 193 nuclear tests carried out in Polynesia between 1966 and 1996. Modernists want more time. During the campaign, they “strive to demonstrate that independence was not the issue”, analyzed, two days with the second round, the specialist near Polynesia the 1st.

Che second current is notably carried by a man, Moetai Brotherson. It is he who should accede to the presidency of French Polynesia on May 10. “We are not going to be independent tomorrow or next week… I have no problem working with the state and that’s not going to change tomorrow.”he said after his victory, on the television channel TNTV, according to AFP.

The leader of the moderate separatist wing has already stipulated that the organization of a self-determination referendum would take “ten to fifteen years”. He will therefore not be able to achieve this during his term of office.

So what does the next strongman of Polynesia want?

Moetai Brotherson hears appease the rerelations with Paris. He prefers to rely on the UN to negotiate with France a process of progressive decolonization. After a first registration in 1946-1947, French Polynesia was reintegrated in 2013 on the United Nations list of non-autonomous territories to be decolonized, in which also appears since 1986 neighboring New Caledonia.

The United Nations affirmed in a resolution “the inalienable right of the population of French Polynesia to self-determination and independence”. She asked the French government to “facilitate and accelerate the establishment of a fair and effective process of self-determination” in this territory, paving the way for a self-determination referendum by which the Polynesian population could ultimately vote in favor of independence, departmentalization or an intermediate status of self-determination.

Yannick Fer, CNRS research director and specialist in French Polynesia, points out that the Tavini has “always looked at what was happening on the side of New Caledonia”. “They are very close to FLKNS”the Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front, and “they want the same thing”.

How is the government reacting?

“Polynesians voted for change. The government takes note of this democratic choice”, Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin said on Twitter on Monday. After the sufficiently thorny issue of New Caledonia, the return of separatists to power in Polynesia is not good news for Paris. “We inevitably enter into a showdown, which could have the calendar as a central point”, abounds the political scientist Benjamin Morel on France 2.

“THEFrench state had taken the habit of giving the equivalent of the roadmap to the government of Polynesia, in particular on the budgetary requirements, points out Yannick Fer. But there, the local government has objectives of social justice, of equality, which changes everything.”

In the summer of 2021, during a four-day trip to Polynesia, Emmanuel Macron had warned overseas communities tempted to leave the Republic. “In the times that are opening up, woe to the little ones, woe to the isolated, woe to those who will suffer the influences, the incursions of hegemonic powers who will come to seek their fish, their technologies, their economic resources”, warned the president, in an allusion to Beijing.

In February, Gérald Darmanin had formulated a similar thought during a day of conferences on the overseas territories organized in Paris. “If France leaves, who will come? If you are not able to manage yourself, who will come? China !”, warned the Minister of the Interior and Overseas Territories, according to comments reported by Tahiti infos.

Asked by Le Figaro (article for subscribers), Semir Al Wardi was nuanced at the end of April: “The state has full control of the independence situation. Paris therefore remains master of the game. Moreoverthe political scientist believes that only “between 20 and 30% of Polynesians are in favor of independence”.

What reforms could the separatists carry out?

With New Caledonia, French Polynesia is the only overseas territory to have its own parliament, government and president. “Autonomy generates expanded powers and common law competence is reversed: the State is given some powers, such as sovereign matters (justice, defence, foreign policy, security, etc.) and all the rest is necessarily of Polynesian attribution”, detailed, mid-April, to franceinfo Arnaud Busseuil, doctor of public law.

The representatives of the local assembly draw up the “laws of the land”, “acts within the domain of the law” specify the state. The President of Polynesia plays a leading role. “He has more powerful levers than a president of a regional council. For five years, he decides everything in Polynesia”explains Sémir Al Wardi to franceinfo.

The separatists have particularly pressing matters to settle. Une study carried out in March 2022 by the Institute of Statistics in French Polynesia revealed that 26% of Polynesians lived below the poverty line (compared to 14% of metropolitans). The separatists, who notably campaigned on the fight against the high cost of living, also claim to want to protect local employment, help agriculture and crafts. They also and above all want to promote tourism, the main economic engine of the archipelago. Without this, the latter remains very dependent on Paris. In 2021, the State it have paid the equivalent of one billion euros “for the benefit of the skills of French Polynesia”.

To become independent, Polynesia would therefore have to find new resources to fill this possible lack. At the microphone of Polynesia the 1stMonday, Moetai Brotherson has also caressed the bosses in the direction of the hair. He repeated that the rupture was not on the agenda.