Making plans against killer asteroids: defense conference in Vienna

Im United Nations Office in Vienna high-ranking representatives from all over the world gather this week. They discuss in the context of Planetary Defense Conferencewhat to do should an asteroid be on a collision course with Earth.

From a size of 50 meters the chunk could do a lot of damage. Either by one enormous blast after the explosion upon entering the atmosphere, as in the Tunguska Asteroids. Or through one kilometer-wide impact crateras he does in the US state Arizona was found. In such an emergency, space organizations must be able to react. Researchers and decision-makers are still negotiating what this might look like on earth and in space until Friday.

Asteroid threat consultants

An important step was the successful one DART-Mission at NASA, where a probe is tracking the trajectory of the Asteroidenmonds Dimorphos could distract. We now want to build on that. An important role is played by the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG, pronounced “same page”). It received a mandate from the United Nations in 2013. The various organizations like ESA, NASA and JAXA (Japan) employ researchers who design plans for various threat scenarios.

If an object were to come towards us whose direction, size and speed are known, we would be prepared: “We’ve already thought about that, I can open a drawer and pull out an initial plan,” explains Detlef Koschnythe chairman of SMPAG, the future zone.

The advisory group analyzes known asteroids and their threat to NASA and ESA greater than 0 is appreciated. According to Koschny, this plan is created for them. New research results, such as those from the DART mission, are also included. The group facilitates and accelerates the work of all researchers who want to prevent a devastating impact.

Who is liable for the consequences of a defensive action?

But their function is only advisory, explains Koschny. In an emergency, the space organizations and countries must act themselves. And that could have consequences. SMPAG’s tasks also include assessing the consequences of a defensive action. So it must be clear in advance who is liable for damagescaused by such a maneuver – for example, if the asteroid hits another place on earth due to the deflection.

SMPAG is supported by the work of International Asteroid Warning Network (IWAN) added, the plans for the civil protection working out. As a ground equivalent, they help respond quickly to threats before a humanitarian catastrophe is unleashed.

Austria has (not) a plan

Andreas Herndler, Head of Crisis Management at the Ministry of Climate, explained at the conference that there is no dedicated plan for an asteroid threat in Austria, but that generic processes are intact. “If the Austrian Space Agency were to be informed of a threat by the United Nations, we would convene the cabinet,” he explained during a panel discussion. Something similar happened at the beginning of the corona pandemic.

Awareness of the need for such defense mechanisms is growing, both among the population and among decision-makers. “The public interest is an engine. That’s why we want to bring this closer to many people in an objective, concentrated and fact-based manner”, explained Richard MoisslHead of Planetary Defense at the ESA compared to the futurezone.

The ESA last fall with just under 17 billion euros received the largest budget ever from the member states, for which space security stay with me 225.9 million euros but only a very small part of it remains. “This is an optional program. We must always demonstrate the added value for humanity and industry. At some point the budget will be exhausted and we have to use the available funds optimally,” says Moissl.

Neomir looks towards the sun

In the next few years, these funds are to be used for several missions that will serve the security of the planet. This includes building a better network for finding asteroids. But that still has a huge problem at the moment: “Since the beginning of mankind, there has been extreme light pollution half the time, namely the blue sky that the sun gives us every day,” explains Moissl.

This prevents objects from being found on the tag page. With the European Neomir-Mission should 2030 this gap to be closed. The probe should quickly scan the sky and find smaller objects. She complements the NEO-Surveyor-Mission of NASA that with long deep scans of the inner solar system for bodies from 140 meters looking for size.

Assault on Apophis

Another important mission will be exploring the asteroid Apophis be. 2029 will be the estimated 340 meter wide asteroid fly close to the earth. This should be used for an observation: “We have a very short development time. We have to see you May 2027 start,” Moissl describes the plan: “At the moment, a small cubesat, the size of a briefcase, is to be brought into space for this purpose.”

In the next 100 years, the asteroid will not be a problem. “Over long periods of time it is not impossible that it will become one and if you know it well then you are super prepared,” says the ESA scientist. Plans to study Apophis also exist from NASA, JAXA, and other organizations. After all, such a close flyby is rare, and everyone wants to take advantage of it. Unlike the ESA, however, these are currently only concepts, not concrete missions.

International cooperation

At the conference and in discussions with researchers and those responsible, it becomes clear that the security of the earth will not depend on a single space organization alone. International cooperation is essential in defending against asteroids. The minimum here is sharing data with other countries.

The worst thing for science is parallel instead of complementary to work, says Moissl. Between ESA and NASA, on the other hand, it works perfectly. So the world is looking forward to HERA waited. The mission should 2024 start and is carried out by ESA. The probe will 3 years investigate which long-term effects the impact of NASA’s DART mission on the asteroid moon Dimorphos had.