The Survey of Market Expectations (REM), carried out by the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) to project an index of inflation, It is the follow-up of the main short and medium-term macroeconomic forecasts, made by specialists, from the country and abroad, on the evolution of economic variables.such as retail prices, interest rates, nominal exchange rate, exports and imports, unemployment and economic activity.
The latest REM report, which disseminates the results obtained between March 29 and 31, projected a inflation of 7% for the third month of the year, and brought the expectation for the whole year to 110%, which is located 10.2 points above the forecast of the previous survey. The forecasts taken into account by the BCRA to elaborate the expectation, are based on the survey of 40 participants.
Regarding the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), the specialists projected a monthly variation of 6.8% for March, and they revised upwards the forecasts for inflation core by 2023, placing it at 109.8%, and by 2024 at 94.2%. For the 2025 annual period, the projection placed the core CPI at 51.9%. For February, the forecasts in the previous surveys suggested 6.1%, while the data observed that month was 6.6%; 0.5 percentage points above the estimate.
REM participants they expect a real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) level for 2023; 2.7 points below 2022, while those who made the best forecast regarding the economic growth in the past, they project an average drop of 3%. For 2024, they estimate an average annual growth of 0.7%.
The consultants forecast the average nominal exchange rate of $215 for April, and those who gave this variable more precision in the short term, estimated $215.19. For the value of exports (FOB) they estimate for 2023, an amount of 74,391 million dollars, and they forecast imports at US$ 71,195 million.. They diagnosed a year-on-year drop of 15.9% in the value of exports, and 12.7% for imports in 2023.
