On Friday, the region’s defense chiefs finished drawing up a plan to use force against the Nigerien junta — which still needs to be approved by heads of state — if Mohamed Bazoum is not reinstated as president. A delegation from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) bloc went to Niger, but was unable to meet with the coup leader, General Abdourahmane Tchiani, who later declared that any aggression against Niger “will receive an immediate response and without notice.” .
“The events of the last two days make it more likely that this (military) intervention will actually happen,” said Nathaniel Powell, an Africa analyst for geopolitical intelligence firm Oxford Analytica. “And if they resist ECOWAS intervention, this can be really catastrophic.”
ECOWAS would act like a divided family, since three of its members — Mali and Burkina Faso, which border Niger, and Guinea — have sided with the junta.
On Saturday, the Nigerian Senate advised the nation’s president, and current ECOWAS president, to consider options other than the use of force to restore democracy, given “the cordial relations that exist between Nigerians and Nigerians.” ECOWAS final decisions are made by the member countries by consensus.
The other countries bordering Niger are Chad, whose government has tried to mediate between the coup leaders and ECOWAS, and Algeria and Libya, which are not members of the bloc. Therefore, any military intervention by land would take place across the 1,600-kilometre (1,000-mile) border with Nigeria.
MILITARY STRATEGY
It is not clear what a military intervention would look like in Niger, which is a Mediterranean country, but the country does have some territorial advantages. The initial focus would be on Niamey, the capital, where Bazoum is being held.
With 25 million inhabitants, Niger is the second largest country in West Africa. Its territory of 1.26 million square kilometers (486,000 square miles) is 100 times that of The Gambia, where ECOWAS last intervened in 2017.
Efforts to reverse the coup in Niger are led by its old ally Nigeria, with an army of 223,000 troops — against 10,000 for Niger, according to World Bank data — and four times larger than those of Burkina Faso combined. Mali, Guinea and Niger.
In Niger some believe that the intervention could include air raids. But Barzoum could serve as a bargaining chip and at the same time a shield for the board.
A ground intervention force from Nigeria would have to cross an area that is almost uninhabited, but now populated by more than 200,000 refugees who have fled violence in northern Nigeria.
Niamey’s international airport is 12 kilometers (7 miles) from the presidential palace where Bazoum is being held, which would make his occupation difficult. The country has two other international airports, including one in Agadez, where the United States has a drone base.
CONCERNS FOR THE WORLD
The military coup in Niger, the latest in a series in West Africa, worries the West because it considers this country its last strategic ally in the fight against terrorism in the Sahel. On the other hand, Niger has 5% of the world’s uranium deposits.
Nnamdi Obasi, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group, warned that a military intervention “could degenerate into a proxy conflict between forces outside Africa, between those who support the restoration of democracy and those who support the junta, which has taken a strong position against the West.
On one side are the strategic allies of Niger, the United States and France. On the other are Russia and its private military contractor Wagner, considered allies by the military regimes in Mali and Burkina Faso.
CONSEQUENCES FOR NIGER
There are fears that the battle in the event of an ECOWAS military intervention will not be limited to the capital.
“I fear the junta would willingly use its own people as cannon fodder or human shields, and ECOWAS forces do not have a good track record in avoiding collateral damage,” said James Barnett, West Africa specialist at the Hudson. Institute.
At best, ECOWAS troops would be stationed in the country as counter-coup forces for what could be a long period. That does not bode well for democracy, both in the country and the region, Powell said.
“In that case, Bazoum would look like someone who is only president thanks to foreign armies, which would destroy his legitimacy.”
CHALLENGES FOR NIGERIA
If Nigeria leads an ECOWAS intervention in Niger, it will run into trouble on the home front, where its outgunned and outmanned armed forces are fighting armed groups that have killed thousands in the past year in the northern regions and center.
“The Nigerian navies have internal problems in Nigeria,” said Bello Tangaza, a resident of the northern state of Sokoto. “They have bandits, they have Boko Haram, but they haven’t been able to solve those problems and they want to go to Niger.”
A Nigerian-led military intervention could distract attention from armed groups that often enter the country through the porous border with Niger. Four people were kidnapped on Wednesday in the Tangaza district, and people fear the situation will not improve in the foreseeable future if the army turns its attention to Niger.
FOUNTAIN: Associated Press
