“Blackout Danger”: We’ve been hearing this term more and more often over the past year. But not only war in Europe and the energy crisis can cause power failures. Scientists warn solar storms.
After a long period of no noticeable activity the sun now “awakes” to life again, reports the meteorologist and atmospheric researcher Matthew Cappucci in the “Washington Post”. In the first week of January were already three solar flares of the strongest category reported – an indication that researchers may have greatly underestimated the activity on the sun. Experts warn that we would also feel the effects on Earth. What exactly does that mean?
Solar storms are brewing: what does that mean for us?
Solar flares are large outbursts from the electromagnetic fields the sun. These particularly strong magnetic fields are in the dark spots on the surface of the sun to see. If the magnetic field is disturbed, the excess energy will be in the form of a explosion delivered. At the same time, the solar wind, an otherwise relatively constant stream of particles emitted by the sun. The electromagnetic radiation from it can turn on earth too dead spots to lead, power lines and satellites to damage. Airplane occupants can also use the pole area harmful radiation to get. All such consequences are included under the term solar storm summarized. However, the Earth’s magnetic field can usually intercept smaller bursts.
Partly it comes with a solar flare but also to so-called coronal mass ejections (CME). According to the European Space Agency ESA will thereby plasma “on the order of several ten billion tons of mass” thrown into space. This mass of particles is much more noticeable to us. “This solar plasma consists of electrons, protons and the nuclei of heavy elements such as helium, oxygen or iron – a highly charged mixture of particles that endanger people and technology and the Destroy infrastructure in space and on earth can”, explains ESA-Expert Stefan Kraft. Because the magnetic field, the protective shield, of the earth often cannot cope with this mass. It is “pulled apart like a soap bubble and can tear, so to speak,” says Kraft. Then the charged particles enter the earth’s magnetic field and change the currents there. Solar storms will therefore also magnetic storms called.
Then why haven’t you noticed anything about it before? In fact, that’s not entirely true, because the mass ejections are responsible for a popular natural phenomenon: the auroras. The shimmering lights are therefore always an indication for physicists increased solar activity. Basically, this is no reason for alarm from science. In the current phases, the “Solar Cycle 25”, However, we are slowly approaching the climax.
More and more sunspots until 2025: Danger increases
Stepping to the “sun maximum”. most sunspots on – this also increases the number of solar flares and mass ejections. According to estimates, the next peak will be in July 2025 achieved. The American Space Agency NASA and the weather service NOAA count with it 115 sunspots per month. Scott McIntosh from National Center for Atmospheric Research and NASA researcher Bob Leamon assume twice as many spots the end. According to Cappucci, their predictions fit the current trend.
That means concretely: In the next two years, the probability of solar storms will increase. The three eruptions at the beginning of the year were only harbingers, so to speak. They come from two major clusters of sunspots that are considered particularly active when it comes to flares. But they were hardly felt on earth. Only amateur radio operators and people who work with very sensitive navigation devices will have noticed, suspects Cappucci. However, the active eruption areas are expected to migrate to the center of the solar disk in the coming weeks – aimed straight at us.
Magnetic storms can occur in modern times “gigantic damage” dish out, Stefan Kraft warns. “In the age of mechanization and digitization blackout, Damages in the trillions, satellite failures and even in the worst case dead possible.” High-voltage networks, oil pipelines, airplanes, TV and mobile phone reception and navigation systems worldwide would be affected. Predicting solar storms is therefore particularly important. Space authorities are monitoring this “Space weather” continuously with satellites. But by 2025, for better or for worse, we have to prepare for an emergency. On the positive side: We will probably also strengthen the polar lights get to see. This is even possible up to the middle latitudes, says meteorologist Cappucci.
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