The leader of the opposition in Thailand, Pita Limjaroenrat, claimed this Monday, May 15 the victory of the progressive party Move Forward during the legislative elections which were held on Sunday.
“I am Pita Limjaroenrat, the next Prime Minister of Thailand”presented the young candidate of 42 years, during a press conference in Bangkok.
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Associated with the color orange, Move Forward (” Go forward “ in English) gleaned a total of 151 seats out of 500, according to the latest estimates, ahead of Pheu Thai (141 deputies), the other opposition force.
The United Thai Nation (UTN) party of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha sails far behind, with only 36 elected, to a fifth position which sounds like a scathing disavowal after nine years in power.
A rejection of the monarchy
Move Forward scored a historic breakthrough in Sunday’s parliamentary election, with a reformist agenda in line with the massive protests of 2020, which called for an overhaul of the monarchy.
“It was the right time, people suffered too much. (…) Today is a new day, and I hope it will bring sunshine and hope”launched, in English, this telegenic figure, a Harvard graduate.
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But its positions deemed radical, from the reform of the controversial article on the crime of lèse-majesté to the end of compulsory conscription, risk creating friction with the military-royalist elite which retains influence within the institutions.
The rejection by the younger generations of the conservative government resulting from the 2014 coup has fueled a record turnout of 75.22%, the electoral commission confirmed on Monday.
A necessary coalition
The complex electoral rules, concocted by the army to its advantage, force the opposition parties to form a coalition to gain power.
Pheu Thai has accepted Pita Limjaroenrat’s offer to form a pro-democracy alliance. This agreement would allow the two winning parties of the elections to reach an absolute majority in the National Assembly, with 292 seats out of 500.
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The movement associated with the wealthy Shinawatra family finished second in the ballot. In a statement, he said he was “agree with Move Forward’s invitation to parties from democratic alliances to join the new government. »
Move Forward and Pheu Thai share the observation of a failing Thai economy that needs reform. However, they disagree on several social issues, such as the article repressing the crime of lèse-majesté, on which Pheu Thai is much more cautious.
Unexpected results
Pheu Thai was the most popular party for the past two decades. However, he did not get the “electoral tidal wave” that his star candidate Paetongtarn Shinawatra (36) demanded during the campaign.
He nevertheless retains the support of rural areas in the north and northeast, which benefited from the pioneering redistribution policies of former Prime Minister in exile Thaksin Shinawatra, father of Paetongtarn, in the early 2000s.
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In Bangkok, Move Forward achieves a score of unexpected magnitude with 32 of the 33 seats won for the cause of Pita Limjaroenrat. His party is part of the dynamics of the pro-democracy demonstrations of 2020 which shook the capital before decreasing in intensity under the effect of the pandemic and the repression of the authorities.
Two member parties of the former government coalition, Bhumjaithai (71 seats) and Palang Pracharat (40), can also play a role of arbiter in the negotiations which should take weeks, before the appointment of the Prime Minister expected during the summer .
Institutions favorable to the army
The opposition needs 376 seats out of the 500 in the National Assembly to counterbalance the influence of the 250 senators appointed by the army. It is enough for the pro army camp of 126 deputies to ensure a majority in the vote of the Prime Minister, chosen by the two chambers.
This system, deemed biased by human rights organizations, allowed former General Prayut (69) to stay in power in 2019, at the cost of a broad coalition encompassing around fifteen parties.
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His political future seems uncertain after this defeat.
Its record remains tarnished by a sluggish recovery from the pandemic, which economists attribute in part to the failing structure of an economy lacking reform.
Human rights groups have accused him of carrying out a large-scale crackdown on leaders of pro-democracy protests, misusing the law against the crime of lèse-majesté for political purposes.
Thailand has experienced a dozen coups since the end of the absolute monarchy in 1932. The past 20 years have been marked by a succession of street protests, military putsches and party dissolutions in court.
