Pandemic end with a “but”

“We are experiencing the first endemic wave of SARS-CoV-2 this winter, and in my opinion the pandemic is over,” said Drosten, head of virology at the Charite University Hospital in Berlin, the “Tagesspiegel”. Virologist Dorothee von Laer from the Medical University of Innsbruck agreed with Drosten on Tuesday to the Ö1-Mittagsjournal. The pandemic will be over when “a good level of immunity has been built up in the population,” said von Laer.

Thanks to the “initial broad vaccination”, the fourth vaccination, which many have picked up, and many infections that have gone through, “well over 90 percent of the population” has “good immunity”, said the virologist. SARS-CoV-2 has “ranked” where the flu is, namely among the “more dangerous respiratory diseases”. Like the flu, the corona virus is also relatively dangerous, especially for older groups of people and people with weakened immune systems.

“Covid-19 is here to stay”

The Austrian geneticist Ulrich Elling can also agree with Drosten’s statement that the first endemic wave with SARS-CoV-2 is now rolling. “The pandemic in that sense” is over, but Covid-19 “is here to stay,” Elling told APA. If you define “pandemic” in such a way that a new pathogen encounters an immunologically unprepared population, then this phase of dealing with the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen is actually more or less over, according to the researcher at the Institute for Molecular Biotechnology (IMBA) researchers working at the Academy of Sciences (ÖAW).

If Drosten now speaks of an endemic, that is true because the vast majority of people who have already been exposed to the pathogen are now infected with CoV. After the omicron variant has been causing widespread infection in Austria for around a year and, relatively recently, the BA.5 sub-variant caused a wave of around two million infected people and thus recently recovered, “people now have a broad immunological Base built,” said Elling: This is currently dealing with an “endemic wave”.

It is most likely to be found in the older age cohorts of people who have really not yet had a CoV infection. In addition, the protection against re-infection after infection lasts longer than originally thought.

Elling: “Strong aftermath of the pandemic”

However, you can now see the strong “aftermath of the pandemic”, with many RS virus and influenza infections. In addition, there is a certain “erosion in the health system”, where the staff, who have often been drained and thinned out by the pandemic, are again confronted with a very high burden, and resources are lacking, especially in the children’s area. In many contexts, structural problems would now become more tangible as a result of savings in the health sector.

Reluctance in the Ministry of Health

The Ministry of Health was cautious on Tuesday. The ZIB did not want to speak of an end to the pandemic, but the general conditions had improved, it said.

Shortly before Christmas, the GECKO advisory body warned that the coronavirus should not be underestimated even when it becomes endemic. Even then, there could be “massive disruption” that would necessitate local action, according to the latest report.

The situation in Austria is currently considered stable, but the combination of other infections such as the flu could cause problems for the hospitals. The report goes on to say that if the trend continues, “personnel-related restrictions” cannot be ruled out. The current wave of influenza, in conjunction with other respiratory infections, could soon lead to more patients in normal and intensive care units.

Basically, the report states that CoV will cause problems even if it is endemic, simply because there will be a higher burden of disease worldwide. In addition, Long Covid will affect general well-being and the ability to earn a living and drive up healthcare costs. There are two post-Covid outpatient clinics in the Vienna General Hospital, in which the demand for appointments is still very high – more on this in wien.ORF.at.

Continue to keep an eye on variant development

According to molecular biologist Elling, it is not yet possible to estimate how often people will be infected with SARS-CoV-2 in the future. He advocates maintaining a scientific overview of variant development. Compared to many other measures during the pandemic, this is really not expensive – more on this in science.ORF.at.

While the CoV infection process has largely normalized in most countries, the largest wave since the beginning of the pandemic has been piling up in China after the end of the zero-CoV policy. This is fueling international concern that a new virus variant could spread around the world. The currently dominant variant in China is BF.7, one of many subvariants of BA.5.

T cells also offer good protection against new variants

Instead of virus variants that replace each other – as in 2021, when Delta first displaced Alpha and was subsequently replaced by Omicron itself – numerous Omicron variants now coexist. At the moment you can see that the omicron is branching out further and further into smaller and smaller mutations, which could again bypass the immune response, virologist von Laer also told Ö1.

The combination of vaccination and past infection should also protect against severe or fatal courses in new variants. Von Laer referred to the two arms of the immune system: the antibodies, which form the first line of defense against the virus, and the T cells, which render cells infected by the virus harmless.

According to the virologist, a new omicron variant could bypass the antibody response and thus lead to an increase in new infections. But most people with a functioning immune system are well protected because of the T-cell response. “The new variants cannot assert themselves against the T-cells,” says von Laer.