Berlin.
Is the corona pandemic over? no The virus has become endemic. Two experts explain what the consequences will be.
“This winter we are experiencing the first endemic wave with Sars-CoV-2, in my opinion the pandemic is over,” said Christian Drosten in an interview with the Berlin “Tagesspiegel” and thus triggered a discussion – between the cautious and those who want everything to be like it was before the pandemic. How is Drosten’s statement to be classified? Answers to the most important questions:
What does “endemic” mean?
In science one speaks of “endemic“, when the acute onset of an illness is over and an often wavy equilibrium has set in. “An endemic simply means that a pathogen is native somewhere,” explains Ulrich Elling from the Institute for Molecular Biotechnology of the Austrian Academy of Sciences (ÖAW) this editorial.
“Endemic means we have reached the state of the ‘new normal’.” Corona is therefore another disease to which we are now exposed and with which we are likely to be infected regularly, says Elling.
How does a pandemic become an endemic?
This is what happens when more and more people come into contact with the virus had – through vaccination or infection. They develop immune protection. “In the meantime, most of them have had Covid one or more times,” says Elling. “In 2022 in particular, we built up solid immunity in the population through several very large waves of infection.” In addition, there is now a fairly high vaccination rate in society.
Is it clear that we are now in the endemic phase?
The change from Pandemic It is hardly possible to define concretely what is endemic. “It’s a smooth transition,” explains Dirk Brockmann to this editorial team. He is a physicist at the HU Berlin and project manager for the modeling of infectious diseases at the Robert Koch Institute.
But of course it makes sense to switch from the term “pandemic” to “endemic‘ to change, says Brockmann. Drosten chose the point in time within the gray area in an understandable way.
“What clearly speaks for it from the point of view of infection dynamics is that the interaction between social behavior and the spread of the coronavirus has become more sluggish overall,” says the modeler with a view to the current infection process.
Is the time of the corona waves over with the transition to endemics?
no corona will continue to be with us. “Endemic doesn’t mean gone,” emphasizes Brockmann. New waves always arise “when the immune protection environment of the virus and the decrease in immunity in the population allow this again,” explains Elling.
The frequency depends on how long our immune protection works. According to Elling, this in turn depends on two factors: on the one hand, how much the virus changes, and on the other hand, how quickly our antibodies decrease. According to Brockmann, the decisive difference to the pandemic is the extent of the rashes of the infection waves. “We no longer have the extremely high peaks we had at the beginning of the pandemic.”
Does reaching endemic mean the all clear?
Only in parts: “The term endemic says nothing about the severity of the disease,” emphasizes Elling. Caries and colds are also endemic, just like HIV and malaria are endemic in Africa. “Now we are no longer observing an outbreak in that sense, but endemic waves that replenish the lost immunity,” says Elling.
However, he warns: “The end of the pandemic should not be confused with the end of the high waves of infection.” That is the mistake that happens in many people’s minds. “The end of the pandemic is more a matter of academic definition than a matter of experience.”
Are vaccinations against Sars-Cov-2 still necessary?
As with the flu, experts are in favor of it. Elling also warns that individual immunity can differ greatly from population immunity. “Anyone who has not been infected for a long time or only develops a poor immune response should continue to refresh their immunity through vaccination,” advises Elling.
An endemic does that Coronavirus not harmless, endemics are just the “new normal”. Brockmann also emphasizes: “Endemic does not mean harmless.”
What does Drosten’s statement mean with regard to the corona measures?
Corona modeler Brockmann says: “Although lifting the measures would logically not improve the overall situation, I suspect that the rashes that would result would be quite small.” However, there is no guarantee of this.
Elling emphasizes: “Christian Drosten is of course completely right with his statement, but this is only about a discussion of the terminology, which should not be linked to too many expectations.” A renewed escalation, for example through new variants, is possible at any time, so the scientist.
What does the change to endemic mean for everyday life?
corona has become normal. From Elling’s point of view, this is “not so exciting, because it means that the situation may not be much better than it is now”. Brockmann also emphasizes that indifference should not spread. “We have to be vigilant, should continue to test and not take a corona infection lightly.”
This also applies to the corona measures and individual responsibility when wearing masks and isolating at home in the event of infection. “We’ve done it for three years now,” he says. Now you can also observe a bit, “and not just in the direction where what we would like to see happens”.
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