Putin has gambled away: "The warm winter in Europe is a hard blow"

politics

Putin hoped that Europe would run out of electricity in the winter. But he miscalculated. Two experts explain how Putin got it wrong.

Juliette Baur / watson.ch

The notion that a cold winter would bring Europe to its knees is widespread in Russia. A Russian propaganda video made the rounds on social media back in September.

In the first sequence of the video, a man in a Gazprom uniform can be seen turning off a gas tap. Cold fog is sweeping across the country, the landscapes are covered with snow. The video is accompanied by a song released in 2015 by Russian singer Varvara Wizbor. In German, the song means: “Winter will be great.”

Full gas storage thanks to high temperatures

So far there has been no cold winter in Europe. Russia seems wrong once again as no European country is considering lifting sanctions on Russia because of a “big winter”.

Christian Opitz heads the Competence Center Energy Management (ior/cf-HSG).Image: zvg

Contrary to Putin’s hopes, Europe currently has enough gas. This is confirmed by Christian Opitz, Head of the Competence Center Energy Management (ior/cf-HSG) at the HSG. He says security of supply in northern Europe is stable despite pipeline transport restrictions. He cites the increased imports of liquid gas and an increase in Norwegian production in favor of the European supply as the reason.

He also states: “Due to the high temperatures, most European gas storage facilities have even been able to be filled again since the end of December; the average filling level is currently around 83 percent.”

Putin has been wrong many times

It is not the first time that Putin has gambled wrong: the professor of culture and Company Russia’s Ulrich Schmid is convinced that Putin made false assumptions even before the war began.

Since April 2007, Ulrich Schmid has been Professor of Russian Culture and Society at the University of St. GallenImage: zvg

By the end of 2021, i.e. before the outbreak of war, gas prices had already risen across Europe. This was due to a shortage, explains the professor. At the time, Russia did not drive up the gas price itself. Schmid clarifies: “At the same time, Russia did nothing to lower the price again.”

Of course, the high gas prices played into Russia’s hands, so Russia deliberately did nothing to counteract the prices: “Part of Putin’s calculation was that the sanctions would certainly not be that severe because the situation on the gas market was already tense. But that was not the case. That was one of Putin’s many miscalculations,” said Schmid.

West not blackmailable with gas

Vladimir Putin not only underestimated the resistance of the Ukrainian army and overestimated the combat effectiveness of his own troops, but he also did not expect that the West would sanction Russia so massively, explains the Russia expert.

“Germany imposed sanctions in the gas sector extremely quickly. On February 21, before the official start of the war, Germany stopped the certification process for Nord Stream 2, which was an unexpected development even for me,” stresses Schmid.

The professor specifies that that should have been a key moment for the president: “Putin should have noticed back then that the West would not be open to gas blackmail if there was a military attack by the Ukraine comes.”

Explosions at Nord Stream

Schmid lists another point where Putin got it wrong: the impact of the explosions at the Nord Stream pipelines in September. The expert notes that the explosions were probably not an act of sabotage by Russia.

There is no reason for Russia to permanently destroy this infrastructure, because the supply of energy to the West could be stopped simply by turning off the gas tap, says Schmid.

This is what the gas release from Nord Stream 2 looked like.Image: Swedish Coast Guard

In the aftermath of those blasts, the Russian President said at an energy forum in Moscow that Russia would supply gas to the West again if the West lifted its sanctions. Schmid states: “That was another wishful thinking.”

But that’s not all, now the mild temperatures are once again thwarting the Kremlin chief’s plans: “The warm winter in Europe is a hard blow for Putin,” said Schmid.

Situation can escalate quickly

Despite the high temperatures and full gas tanks, one shouldn’t be fooled by the false sense of security, explains energy expert Opitz.

“The full gas storage tanks and the mild temperatures are a snapshot, the situation can quickly escalate again,” he notes. The HSG lecturer adds that the recent cold snap in the USA would clearly show that the situation in Europe could change again very quickly.

Opitz emphasizes that it is always advisable – even if there is no acute shortage – to use electricity and gas sparingly: “We can save all the resources that we don’t need now for later.”