How much, for example, does the moon affect the melting of the ice?
Nils: Of all the factors that affect the melting of the ice, the moon comes a long way down. I would believe anyway. Never thought of it, but it’s clear the moon might contribute a little. Sun, precipitation, temperature, possibly minus degrees at night and wind will have a greater impact.
What will the weather be like this summer?
Nils: The short answer is that nobody knows. There is talk of El nino and that it could be like the summer of 2018. But the connection between El nino and our summer weather is very weak.
Is there an unusual amount of ice on the river banks this year?
Nils: Hmmm. Don’t know for sure, but since April and early May were cold, it’s reasonable to assume. Before that, there were an awful lot of setbacks as well.
Is the weather different now compared to previous years?
Nils: Yes, I think so. Terribly long winter and spring not worth the name. But that’s also the charm that it varies, right? Now things have changed too.
What does a metrologist actually do in a day at work?
Nils: The preparation of broadcasts takes quite a lot of time. We analyze weather maps and draw our own. The time in the box is quite short, and that is perhaps lucky because then it doesn’t go wrong very often 🙂
Do you think we are headed for another ice age?
Nils: In the extremely long term we are, but in the near term we rather see an alarming warming.
Does everything ripen during the short summer when spring is so delayed? Like gooseberries, blueberries?
Nils: Difficult question. Some plants are certainly less adaptable than others, but I don’t think it was so extreme that our favorite berries wouldn’t be able to grow properly.
What is the most challenging/fascinating forecast you have made?
Nils: When I was in Nepal and climbing, I made forecasts with small means that never turned out right 🙂 Extreme weather up in the mountains.
One more time about El Niño: How does it affect the weather here and in the rest of Europe?
Nils: There is a weak link to wetter winters. Summer time even weaker connection. In southern Europe, for example, I don’t really know. For the entire planet generally warmer as stored heat bubbles up in the Pacific Ocean.
Will there be a “change” in the seasons now that it is unusually warm in January-February and then colder in April-May?
Nils: I wouldn’t think so. It is SMHI that decides, but there is also value in the disappearance, extension or shortening of a season. Becomes a measure of climate change.
Your ten-day forecasts have become more certain in recent years, but how far ahead do you think you can make a reasonably certain forecast today? More than two weeks?
Nils: Thank you, that was nice to say and I hope it’s true 🙂 We have data that extends for approximately 10 days. So longer is difficult.
When did you start as a meterologist?
Nils: I have worked at SVT for 10 years until the summer. Before that at SMHI in Norrköping and Malmö, since 2009.
Is it more difficult to make weather forecasts these days with climate change in mind?
Nils: No, I wouldn’t say that. The basis will be better and the forecasts more certain. It is happening at a faster pace.
Are you stuck watching DSÄ like the rest of us who are here now
Nils: Unfortunately, I don’t have the opportunity. Have other things to work on and take breaks and cuddle with my baby 🙂
It is said that global warming will cause moose to disappear in southern Sweden. But how much warmer has it become in the Kullberg region?
Nils: Relevant question. Unfortunately, I cannot give a good answer. However, SMHI has good local data when it comes to climate change. If you have time, you can search through their jungle of climate statistics.
I think weather talk is often valuable. Sun is nice and rain is bad weather. Many people think that the sun and heat are incredibly difficult. Do you meteorologists discuss evaluative formulations or is there a standard you just follow?
Nils: We do and there is. We try to balance and not step on anyone’s toes, but at the same time not be completely colorless in the box. For example, after a cold spring, it’s okay to happily talk about sun and heat this week. However, should it dry out in July, thoughts turn to farmers and forest owners etc.
How are we doing with groundwater in the country right now?
Nils: It generally looks good. If I remember correctly better than other years. If you want to see for yourself, check SGU ground water
Do you think that climate change can change how moose (and other animals) habits and migrations will change?
Nils: Absolutely. They have to adapt to new living conditions.
What will the weather be like tomorrow?
Nils: Like today 🙂
Nils question: “We” usually say that we have such local weather here in Skåne: It can be one weather in Trelleborg, another in Anderslöv and a third weather in Vellinge (about 1.5 miles between Trelleborg and the others for those of you who don’t know ). Is it more local here than in the rest of Sweden?
Nils: Hehe really Nils question. I grew up in Anderslöv and went to school in Trelleborg. Yes, it makes a difference, especially in Trelleborg, which is on the coast. It may not differ more than anywhere else though… not significantly. But there is something special about Skåne. After all, we have three coasts and with a sea breeze, a large cloud can arise in the Hörby area in the middle of Scania where the winds converge. So it’s kind of funny.
The average temperature has increased more every year. Does it seem to go faster than expected or does it just feel that way?
Nils: Not sure if it is going faster than expected or if you were just optimistic/naive about the climate goals. 1.5 degrees unfortunately seems to have been done according to more and more voices.
Is this usual unusual for the spring that the winter has been long?
Nils: Yes, you can say that. Summer looks to be pretty normal or early by one or a few weeks. At the end of the week, we can probably state that summer is here in southern Sweden and locally in Norrland’s coastal landscape.
I have heard of an unusually warm March in southern Europe, how come it is still so cold here?
Nils: A large-scale weather pattern has concentrated heat above all over the Iberian Peninsula. It’s warmth that we might otherwise have had to share and that the Spanish and Portuguese would have liked to share, I imagine. It has been hot and dry in other countries too, eg France and Italy.
There are already warnings of a hot summer. How do you know that?
Nils: Globally, it’s going to be warm, but whether it will be warm in Sweden or not, you don’t know with any certainty. We are entering an El Nino phase and, simply put, stored heat is bubbling up to the surface in the Pacific Ocean. The link to 2018 feels exaggerated for Sweden.
Does sublimation take place all the time, when we have snow or are special conditions required? How much of the snow can conceivably disappear that way?
Nils: Snow always sublimates, i.e. goes from solid form (snow) to gas form (water vapor). It’s more noticeable when the air is dry, but I don’t know how much sublimes and how much evaporates by first becoming water.
How do you become a meteorologist?
Nils: There is a special education. You can study in Uppsala or Stockholm. I think the education in Lund has been discontinued, but I wouldn’t bet on that.
What will the weather be like in Ångermanland in the near future?
Nils: It will be like today or like yesterday. About the same weather all week for most of the country. Mostly in the west it occasionally gets a little cloudier.
Does it make a difference to the water reservoir if the water comes down as rain or snow?
Nils: It should do. Snow can be stored on the surface and when it melts, a lot can melt at the same time. If it rains in summer or spring when the sun is strong, most of it evaporates or is used by plants.
Is the amount of snow controlled by factors in the weather? Which?
Nils: Controlled a lot by cold. If it’s cold, the snow will be thinner. Can differ by up to a factor of ten if at all. “1 mm of rain can become 1 mm of snow, but also 1 cm of snow at lower temperatures”.
Why is it that there are more frequent auroras now more throughout the country, does it have to do with the climate crisis or something else?
Nils: Not the climate but with the sun’s activity. Some years there will be more Northern Lights. Then the conditions with cloudless weather must also exist.
What do you think about summer? Many say it will be very hot and dry. What do you base it on now… in April/May?
Nils: I have no other thoughts than that the connection to 2018 is premature. Just because it’s el nino this year, it doesn’t have to be karate hot.
Is spring unusually late?
Nils: Yes, it is. But summer looks to be early or on time.
It is difficult to put DSÄ right on time. When it is best depends on the weather and of course SVT needs to decide on a date well in advance. Does SVT request a specialized weather forecast for this area from you well in advance when planning dates? Could they do it next year?
Nils: Hmmm, I don’t know how far in advance DSÄ is planned. I suspect it would be difficult. My forecasts extend 10 days ahead and on days 5-10 the accuracy is not perfect, I must admit.
Do all the sun’s eruptions affect the weather? There have been a lot of northern lights visible throughout the country recently.
Nils: Not to a great extent. However, solar radiation has increased in Europe partly as a result of reduced emissions and probably reduced cloud cover.
It has been very unstable during these two weeks: weather, sun, rain storm snow chaos… all on the same day. How can it be so?
Nils: It’s what we call classic April weather. In spring, the air is often cold and the sun strong. This causes it to “shoot in the atmosphere” and cumulus clouds are formed, cold cumulus clouds which can also give off hail. Between showers and snow flurries, the sun peeks out and certainly warms up well in April-May.
Were you born somewhere?
Nils: Lund BB to be exact, but grew up in Anderslöv.
I live in the southeast, have noticed in recent years that we have very few discharges, thunderstorms while other parts of the country seem to frequently build up to discharge. What do you think this is due to? Lives in Karlskrona.
Nils: The most thunder is on the west coast, where most of the weather comes in. They partly get thermal thunderstorms and frontal thunderstorms from cold fronts in the summer. And then they also have the South Swedish highlands, which give an extra boost to the clouds. You are somewhat protected in Sweden’s garden.
How reliable can a weather forecast be?
Nils: Depends a lot on the participants. Will be a balancing act between delivering as accurate a forecast as possible while not being able to say too much.
How far up the country has spring come?
Nils: It is spring in almost the entire country. Still winter in Lapland and parts of the mountains, but that will surely change. Actually, winter is already over now, but you only know that in hindsight.
