In the past few months, top European politicians have been shaking hands in China: first came Olaf Scholz last November, then Spain’s Prime Minister Sanchez in March, followed in April by the visit of French President Emmanuel Macron, who visited EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had in tow. Most recently, the German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock visited the People’s Republic. The context of these visits is the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and increasing uncertainty about Beijing’s position in this conflict.
Xi does nothing for Ukraine
Most recently, Ukrainian military experts said they are increasingly finding Chinese components in the remains of Russian missiles. This feeds fears in the capitals of the free world that Beijing might end up sending weapons systems to Putin’s army after all. So far, hopes have been harbored that Beijing could be prevented from taking this step. Even if Beijing never tires of claiming that the People’s Republic is a neutral actor in this war, Xi Jinping’s leadership has so far done nothing to help the beleaguered Ukraine.
The bottom line of the diplomatic marathon is that no state can compete with the People’s Republic alone. The truth, which must increasingly assert itself in Paris, Berlin and Madrid, is that only a united phalanx of the free world is able to negotiate with Beijing. The People’s Republic of China is the most powerful country in the world today. That is, it is the nation that creates the greatest pull in the world. There is not a country under the sun that does not align its foreign, security, economic and trade policies with developments in Xi Jinping’s China. Whether it’s “de-coupling” or “de-risking,” all of these new concepts relate to a resurgent China and its increasingly aggressive stance in the world.
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The United States of America is probably the only country in the world that can still compete militarily with the People’s Republic. The US is in fact the only superpower currently in existence. That means Washington maintains military bases and trade links around the world like no other nation. But it also means that the “soft power” of the USA is far greater than that of the People’s Republic. Many more people still want to immigrate to America than to Xi’s authoritarian China.
But the USA is also aligning its policy entirely with developments in China. It is already becoming apparent that the upcoming presidential election campaign will be dominated by the People’s Republic. Democrats and Republicans are at odds over who is willing to take a tougher stance on the People’s Republic. This means that even today’s militarily strongest country has to coordinate its China policy with its partners in the world.
When the free world does not agree on China, exactly what happened last week happens: French President Macron declares after a state visit to China that the Taiwan issue is not of overriding importance for France or Europe and that it is allowed not make themselves an appendage of Washington. In Beijing, people are happy about Macron’s obsequious devotion.
With China, every western country makes the same mistake
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock had to correct the French President when, in conversation with top Chinese politicians, she described a war on Talbahnstraße as a “horror scenario”. This diplomatic interplay, which the Chinese leadership should be happy to follow, has exposed the dilemma of the free world: the same mistake is made in all capitals. One believes that one can still speak to China on an equal footing due to old but long-lost greatness. Even China’s closest partner, Putin’s totalitarian Russia, can’t say that about itself. The Kremlin is only Xi’s junior partner.
Unfortunately, the Old World is taking a very long time to react appropriately to the new geopolitical situation. It is to be hoped that institutions like the G7 will correct the current course as soon as possible. Perhaps the host Japan, which is the only country in the association to experience the changes in the People’s Republic in the immediate geographical vicinity, will help. Not for nothing has Tokyo announced that it will double its military budget in the next five years.
If the free world does not learn to speak with one voice and to understand that it can only speak as a unit on an equal footing with Beijing, it will indeed be a Chinese century and not a free-democratic century.
