Poland wants to deliver the fastest: The government in Warsaw assumes that 14 Leopard main battle tanks from the Polish army can be delivered to Ukraine in just a few weeks. All that is really needed is the training of the Ukrainian soldiers, said Deputy Defense Minister Wojciech Skurkiewicz.
In fact, training is one of the relevant points when it comes to how quickly the tanks are available. So far, the Ukraine has mainly been fighting with tanks of Russian or Soviet design, the more modern Leopard is to be operated significantly differently. The assessments differ, experts generally assume that soldiers can master the military equipment after three to eight weeks of training.
Germany is targeting early April
This is also one reason why Germany assumes that it will not be able to hand over its 14 promised Leopard tanks until the end of March/beginning of April. Ukraine will receive the tanks by the “end of the first quarter,” said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius during a visit to troops in Saxony-Anhalt on Thursday. That should be “in time” in view of the feared Russian spring offensive.
Pistorius confirmed that the training of Ukrainian soldiers on the Marder infantry fighting vehicle, which is also to be delivered, should begin in January. With the Leopard, that will be “a little later”. The defense minister also made it clear that Germany was handing over a whole package, i.e. tanks including training, spare parts and ammunition.
Ammunition supply as a challenge
The latter could pose a logistical challenge: the Leopard – and virtually any other western tank that Ukraine might receive – uses standard 120mm NATO ammunition, but the Russian tanks currently in use in the Ukrainian army use 125mm ammunition .
This means that Ukraine is dependent on regular deliveries of ammunition that have to arrive. However, the question of ammunition became relevant some time ago in the war. Both warring parties are slowly running out of reserves – and many Western stockpiles are also running out.
Commitments with a partly unclear time horizon
There have been commitments to Leopard deliveries from other countries – albeit with a somewhat unclear number of units and a time horizon that has not yet been fixed: Spain was ready for the delivery, but Defense Minister Margarita Robles said on Thursday in Madrid that one first had to “check which of them can be put into operation to plan the delivery”. In addition, the “long since decommissioned” tanks would first have to be repaired.
As a first step, Canada also wants to send four Leopard tanks to the war zone. Delivery will take place “in the coming weeks,” Defense Minister Anita Anand said at a press conference in Ottawa on Thursday. In addition, Canadian soldiers should support their Ukrainian counterparts in commissioning the tanks. Canada is considering sending more tanks later.
The Norwegian government also wants to let Ukraine have tanks, Defense Minister Björn Arild Gram said on Norwegian broadcaster NRK on Wednesday evening. Again, it is unclear how many will be delivered. The Netherlands is considering buying 18 Leopard 2 tanks leased from Germany and making them available to Ukraine. Finland and Sweden also signaled willingness to participate.
Brits want to deliver soon
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak had already announced in mid-January that he would deliver 14 Challenger 2 main battle tanks to the Ukrainian army. “The aim is to do this by the end of March,” Defense Secretary Alex Chalk said in the House of Commons in London on Thursday. The training of Ukrainian soldiers on the vehicles is scheduled to start on Monday. The Challenger uses different ammunition than the Leopard, so the logistics here are also more complex.
France does not rule out the delivery of French Leclerc main battle tanks to Ukraine. “As far as Leclerc is concerned, nothing is out of the question,” said President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday. Denmark has been wanting to deliver 20 Piranha wheeled infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine for months. So far, however, the Swiss manufacturer has blocked it. Things now seem to be moving.
US tank delivery will take “months”.
The 31 Abrams tanks promised by the USA are unlikely to play a role in the intensified combat operations expected in the spring. So far, the US government has refused to deliver the modern military equipment to Ukraine, arguing that it is difficult to use and requires kerosene fuel. Now the decision has been made to deliver it, however, as a US government representative warned, it could take “months” before the main battle tanks are actually delivered. Some experts speak of up to a year.
Because the Abrams will not come directly from the stocks of the US Army, but will be organized through the USA’s Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI). The US government orders and finances new armaments for Ukraine. Criticism has been raised about this: “This delay is difficult to understand when you consider that the Marines are retiring their Abrams tanks,” writes the “Wall Street Journal”.
Risky transportation to the country
But even when all the preparatory steps have been completed, one of the biggest problems awaits at the end: the delivery itself. Because it is not easy to bring heavy equipment from Russia into the country unnoticed. Fear that Russia will target roads, rail lines and interim storage facilities for the material has meant vehicles are typically camouflaged or drive in the dark.
According to the New York Times, most weapons are transported either on railroad cars or on flatbed trucks. Rail transport is the fastest and safest way to transport tanks, since long convoys of trucks would most likely attract the attention of Russia.
Deliveries from Russia have already been attacked several times, with the greatest damage probably occurring in April when an interim storage facility between Lviv and the Polish border was bombed. The New York Times also writes that Western suppliers consider the transport risk too high and that the Ukrainian troops themselves have to pick up the weapons from depots in NATO territory.
