The opposition’s top candidate, Shinawatra, showed how ambitiously she is pushing for power when she invited journalists to the hospital in Bangkok shortly after the birth of her second child in early May. “I am ready to return to campaigning. We have to achieve a landslide victory for Pheu Thai,” said the 36-year-old, referring to her party’s good poll numbers.
Shinawatra probably has her family to thank for the good ratings. Her father, billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, and her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra, each held power in Thailand for several years. Both were deposed by military coups and live in exile. In the highly polarized kingdom, however, the family still has many supporters.
Thailand: Decisive general election
A parliamentary election is coming up in Thailand, which could turn out to be trend-setting for the popular holiday destination. According to a survey, the military regime could be overthrown by the opposition movement led by Paetongtarn Shinawatra. The 36-year-old is the daughter of ex-Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who has lived in exile since he was ousted from power in a military coup in 2006. The progressive Move Forward party with its top candidate Pita Limjaroenrat is also given good chances.
Other opposition parties can also score
However, the second major opposition party, the progressive Move Forward party with its lead candidate Pita Limjaroenrat, is also doing well. The party scores with an election program that is rarely clear, promising an end to conscription and measures to combat the high level of air pollution that has been making the country negative headlines for months.
Thailand is at a crossroads, the 42-year-old Harvard graduate Limjaroenrat summed it up during the election campaign. “One path takes us towards finally turning into a fully democratic country.” The other, that of the ruling conservative establishment, seems outdated to many and insists on traditions like the controversial Reading Majesty Act, which carries extremely long prison sentences for lese majeste foresees the king.
prime minister at an advantage
The last election was held in 2019, five years after a 2014 military coup that brought then-coup general Prayut Chan-o-cha to power. Thanks to a new constitution introduced by the military, he was confirmed in office as head of government in 2019. Mass protests followed a year later, unsuccessfully demanding reform of the monarchy and new elections.
Chan-o-cha also has an advantage on Sunday. The 69-year-old and his United Thai Nation (UTN) party are behind in all polls – but together with the 500 elected MPs, 250 unelected senators also decide who becomes head of government. These were appointed by the military in 2018 and are considered loyal to Chan-o-cha. To get into office, a candidate must win the majority of the 750 seats, i.e. 376 votes. A difficult task for the opposition.
Difficult government formation
The main opposition party, Pheu Thai, around Shinawatra, will probably have to find allies in order to govern. Coalitions are common in Thailand and can be very large: more than a dozen parties are involved in the outgoing government. Pheu Thai ruled out an alliance with Chan-o-cha’s UTN or the Palang Pracharath (PPRP), also backed by the military. Move Forward is the ideal partner. And the Democratic Party and Bhumjaithai could also secure a majority.
Whatever the vote, there is already talk of a fateful choice in the popular holiday destination. Many scenarios are conceivable. Protests and chaos could again threaten, both Thailand is not alien. Neither have there been military coups: there have been more than a dozen of them in the kingdom since the 1930s.
“Coups must not happen again,” said Chan-o-cha in March. However, the scientist Alexandre Barthel from the Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok does not consider it impossible: “If Pheu Thai gets a majority, it is possible that the military will intervene again. Not necessarily immediately, but one, two or three years later.”
High awareness of democracy among young people
Many in the country long for change. Many Thais are demanding more democratic rights and progress in their country. “Especially among young people, awareness of democracy seems to have increased in recent years,” Celine Caro, head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS) office in Thailand, told dpa.
They observed very closely whether the electoral process was respected and whether the new government ultimately reflected the preferences of the voters. Whether it will remain peaceful, nobody knows at the moment. “The weeks after the election will show whether a consolidation of democracy in Thailand is possible,” said Caro.
Economy as the number one campaign issue
The topic that has moved people in the country the most and that largely dominated the election campaign is the economy. According to the World Bank, Thailand can expect growth of 3.6 percent this year, but this will mainly be driven by the recovery of the stricken tourism industry after the CoV pandemic.
Many market vendors, factory workers and farmers have long been at a loss as to how to make ends meet. The gap between rich and poor is also widening in Thailand. Taxi drivers in Bangkok say they often have to work 16 to 17 hours to support their families. It often happens that their eyes close at the wheel. “Something has to change, so I will vote for the opposition,” the dpa quoted a taxi driver as saying.
Environment and climate only peripheral issues
Environment and climate were issues that went unnoticed in the election campaign. Because despite smog caused by fires, record-breaking heat waves and increasing flooding, green movements have so far found little support among Thailand’s voters. Thailand’s Greens received less than one percent of the vote in the 2019 election.
The northern city of Chiang Mai, popular with backpackers, even gained notoriety this year by overtaking Beijing and New Delhi on the list of cities with the worst air quality. Thailand and Southeast Asia in general are among the regions most vulnerable to climate change. According to a 2022 climate report by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak institute, 66 percent of Thais believed that the parties did not rate climate change highly enough.
