Mexico City.- In the midst of fears about a possible recession in the United States and speculation about the future of monetary policy, especially the Federal Reserve (Fed), the dollar had a small drop in value in April, so the peso added four months with capital gains.
The sale of the retail exchange rate ended today at 18.46 units, four cents less than yesterday, and the purchase at 17.39 pesos.
This Friday, wholesale between banks, brokerage houses, exchange houses, companies and individuals, the dollar fell 5.83 cents to offer 17.9882 units.
With this, at retail, the US currency gave the peso three cents in April, and at wholesale 3.19, while in the Foreign Exchange Market (Forex) it did so with 4.59 cents.
On the last day of April, the green ticket in the Forex or international currency market, traded at 18,0003 pesos, 3.72 cents below its termination on Thursday, when it was announced that from January to March 2023, the economy of the United States advanced 1.1 percent quarterly annualized.
The variation in GDP was less than the 1.9 percent anticipated by the Bloomberg consensus and 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter of the past, which encouraged speculation regarding the Fed’s monetary policy.
During April, the exchange rate showed stable behavior and in the second half of the month, it tried to pierce the key support of 18 pesos per dollar on several occasions in the international market, but only managed to close below that level in two sessions. said Gabriela Siller, director of Economic Analysis at Banco Base.
The stability of the exchange rate is due to caution, he explained, since in the mentioned month uncertainty rose due to several factors, among which are a greater probability of recession in the United States and nervousness related to the stability of US banks.
He also referred as elements to the uncertainty about the future of the Fed’s monetary policy and the speculation that the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) has already finished or is about to finish the cycle of interest rate increases.
Inflation in the first half of April shows a clear downward trend and has led two officials from the Bank of Mexico to mention that the cycle of rate increases could have concluded, although it will be important to observe inflation in the second half of April. April.
For Siller, the possibility that Banxico has concluded the rate increases could be negative for the peso, especially if the Fed decides to raise it on May 3.
