The saver is disoriented, and the high inflationary inertia of recent months adds another “enemy” to the traditional fixed term: the free dollar escalation of the last days, which accumulates in the two days of this week 12%. Therefore, this context is discouraging placements in pesos.
As a fact to take into account, the traditional fixed term has been offering for a few days a nominal annual rate (TNA) of 81%percentage that represents an interest of 6.66% per month.
A figure that in April it is severely affected by the increase in the prices of the economy and by the rise of the free dollar.
He blue ticket advances only in April around 26%, a level that exceeds three times what a 30-day deposit in pesos offers this month. And that leaves it out of competition.
Even, only in the day of Tuesday the dollar increased around 7.14%, more than what you pay in the whole month for a traditional fixed term. Even in the first two days of the week it advanced 12%.
Definitely, The one who bet on the dollar in April beats placements in pesos by “far”.
The rise in the fixed-term interest rate to 81% per year is not enough to seduce savers in the face of the rise in the price of the dollar in April.
Fixed term, inflation and interest rate to seduce savers
On the other hand, the traditional fixed term is also lagging behind inflation for two months, because in March the consumer price index (CPI) was 7.7% and in April it is estimated that it will be around 7%. That is, in both cases, the real rate offered by a bank deposit is negative since it is lower than said figures.
In summary, if the behavior throughout the year is analyzed, a Traditional fixed term offers an income of around 30% in the 4 months which are already past 2023. Meanwhile, inflation advances at a similar level in the same period and the blue climbs 43%.
Definitely, in the balance sheet of the last few months, the dollar has become the big winner. An attraction that seems to increase in the context of a scenario where the economy lacks dollars due to the different mismatches and the extreme drought that affected the countryside. To which is added the political uncertainty in the middle of an election year.
“With the dollar soaring in recent days, those who made a fixed term at the beginning of the year had an accumulated income in pesos of approximately 32%, while the blue ticket moved more than 40%. With this result, and above all the acceleration of these weeks of the free ticket, as a sign of high turbulence, there is not much attraction to continue holding positions in pesos“, iProfessional resume Fernando BaerQuantum Economist.
Consequently, he claims that the Central Bank should “raise more” the interest rate to try to reverse the expectations of an “out of control” situation
Therefore, consider that at a minimum, the income paid by a traditional fixed term would have to rise 9 percentage points to attract saversbut “the process at this stage is not resolved only by raising yields. Generating a change in expectations is necessary, in addition to raising the rate,” concludes Baer to iProfessional.
The rise of the informal dollar and the lack of attractiveness for investments in pesos are based on an uncertain economic and political situation.
Dollar or fixed term, what will happen in the future
Meanwhile, the saver is watching until where can the price of the dollar go to also decide how it is positioned against the traditional fixed term in pesos.
“New challenges and new leaps into the gap cannot be ruled out forward, so savers are going to look at the fixed term with more mistrust. The jump in the price of the dollar was within what was foreseeable, “he tells iProfessional Sebastian Menescaldieconomist and associate director of Eco Go.
In the event that For savers to have the only legal alternative to resort to a traditional fixed term to safeguard their pesos, this economist recommends: “I would tell them to wait because, probably, if this situation of high inflation and the rise in the price of the dollar continues like this, at least it will lead to an increase in the interest rate.
For Salvador Vitelli, Romano Group economist, with the dollar “so runaway, it makes no sense to have raised the effective annual rate (TEA) of the fixed term from 113% to 119%. This, clearly, threatens the demand for instruments in pesos and generates that all the investing public look at the dollar”. He even maintains that the rate of debt tenders in pesos should be seen, where up to 132.6% of TEA has been validated. Even, in the LED market “there are rates of 157.8%.”
Beyond the interest rate that is set to try to seduce savers to stay in pesos and invest in the traditional fixed term, there are other issues that generate mistrust.
“Today it is difficult to think of a rate that will calm this run that is taking place, because it depends on economic decisions. There will be no rate that reaches. Yes, logically, if you go to the extreme and set the rate of 1,000% of the effective rate, it will have an effect, but we are talking about what is possible and what can be expected to happen,” says Vitelli.
And he concludes: “As long as they do not show some authority, criteria, structure for economic decision-making and some path, speaking in terms of rates is not going to give much result at this time.”-
