The only thing that distracts visitors from time to time is a drone buzzing back and forth. Olaf Scholz has just walked the honor guard on a long red carpet. He heard the German anthem. He saluted the flag. He stood alongside his host, the President of Kenya. Lots of Chingderassabum, all very solemn here on Friday, under the sun in Nairobi.
A good two hours later, at the same place, in front of the Presidential Palace. The hosts quickly set up a huge sunshade for the delegations. Heaters, even legal regulations for heaters, are rarely an issue at meetings with Kenya’s presidents here, just south of the equator. Today they are.
Scholz may be on a trip abroad, a nine-hour flight south of Berlin. But German domestic politics has traveled with it: immigration, a shortage of skilled workers, renewable energies – and of course heating. Even the fate of an official state secretary is a topic in Kenya’s sun.
German domestic policy travels to Africa
A German reporter in Kenya asked Scholz about the future of the building energy law and whether Robert Habeck had to fire his State Secretary Patrick Graichen. And Scholz? He says something about migration first, in very decent English. He then acknowledges the purpose of Habeck’s law. No government faction questions it “in essence”. A lot could get better in Parliament, he was “very confident”.
I assume that everything else will be done according to the rules that we have.
Olaf Scholz (SPD) on the Graichen case
A real Scholz: talk down internal disputes, stay cloudy. About the Graichen case, Scholz says that the Minister of Economic Affairs has commented on it. “I assume that everything else will be according to the rules that we have.” I assume so. Rules. Take place. Scholz protects himself with technocratic German and avoids positioning. Should Graichen have to go at some point? Scholz can then say that he said everything about it back then. Back then, beyond Germany, in Africa.
Scholz himself probably least expected that foreign policy would shape his chancellorship as much as it has since Russia’s war against Ukraine. After an election campaign calling for “respect”, secure pensions and a higher minimum wage, Scholz crossed the finish line in 2021. Two stumbling competitors for the chancellorship, Annalena Baerbock and Armin Laschet, became the godfathers of the SPD victory.
In terms of foreign policy, Scholz was almost a novice. Certainly, as Hamburg mayor, he once hosted a G-7 summit (rather unfortunate) and shook hands with Donald Trump. But basically he was a local politician in Hamburg. As Minister of Labor and Vice-Chairman of the SPD parliamentary group, he worked at home. It was about demographic factors, bonds, things like that. Finance Minister Scholz traveled the world a bit before the pandemic struck.
And now Ethiopia and Kenya within 48 hours. Soon G-7 in Japan, also South Korea. In between a few European trips. Plus a visit from Volodymyr Zelenskyj probably soon in Berlin. Scholz has long been the foreign chancellor.
Scholz expresses what Biden has long been demanding
Vladimir Putin has a lot to do with it. Scholz’s speech of February 27, 2022 is likely to go down as a significant change of course in foreign policy in recent German history.
Ukraine, Russia’s aggression, China’s claim to power, the climate crisis, now the civil war in Sudan – there is probably not a day on which the chancellor is not involved in foreign policy. He does it deliberately, carefully. He has long since transferred his “respect” vocabulary to foreign policy and demands more “respect” for Africa in Addis Ababa. The “respect”, for Scholz a domestic political lesson from Hillary Clinton’s disrespectful view of people beyond the upper class, is a kind of railing for him. He sticks to it, whether in Aachen or Addis Ababa.
And the caution? At the headquarters of the African Union (AU), Scholz advocates a seat for the AU in the G20 group on Thursday. A harmless demand, especially here, with Scholz almost acting as if it were his idea. He fails to mention that a certain Joe Biden was already calling for exactly that in 2022. When asked which states he had at his side here, he did not answer. Cloudy formulations, Scholz has always been great at that.
When it comes to specifications, important decisions, Scholz only makes them when there is no other way to avoid it. Always hold the cards close to your chest instead of revealing them. Scholz has always despised quick shots or steamy chatter.
Gladly cheeky and with a pinch of know-it-all
The chancellor conducts politics in the style of the application committee, which he has headed at SPD party conferences for what feels like 120 years: negotiating behind closed doors, making deals, leading things to success. Praise every decision as excellent, gladly innocently and with a pinch of know-it-all. Look how brilliant I was again. “It was right”, “It was good” Scholz likes to say about what he does. Even in Kenya these words are spoken.
The Hanseat Scholz was never a fisherman. Its success rests on constitution, discipline, perseverance and the failures of others. His party friend Frank-Walter Steinmeier was suddenly sitting in the Bellevue. Sigmar Gabriel, Martin Schulz, Peer Steinbrück and Andrea Nahles failed on their own. What was left was “Olaf”, as he is called in the SPD.
The failure of others – that is an essential part of Scholz’ rise. Just six months ago, his vice chancellor was considered a possible or probable successor. When Habeck became an issue in front of the presidential palace in Nairobi, he had long since had the image of a pitiable slob. The green survey values are falling, even in the stronghold of Bremen.
Wasn’t Habeck considered chancellor-to-be? Doesn’t he always formulate much clearer, more concisely, funnier than Scholz? Like Gabriel or Steinbrück? Wasn’t he revered by parts of the people, unlike Scholz?
Scholz uses an almost old-fashioned, reserved rhetoric. Although he gives many interviews, he doesn’t say much in them. His foreign minister accuses China of being more aggressive and repressive than it used to be, and says she is “shocked” by Beijing. His defense minister says: Ukraine must win the war. Friedrich Merz comes to a head. Scholz remains more cautious than any of them.
Olaf Scholz observes and avoids mistakes. maintain discipline. Always keep a back door open. Let’s see who’s on the line and who’s left.
