The libertarian wave forced Unión por la Patria and Juntos por el Cambio to review the accounts in the Chamber of Deputies, where from December 10 they will have two options to approve a law: talk to each other or build bridges with the bench led by a Javier Miley that, if in October the numbers of the STEP are repeated, will add 39 seats to the three it already has.
The decline of the two main electoral fronts in parliament was so pronounced this Sunday that not even the most optimistic imagine replicating the 2019 scenario, when Alberto Fernandez y Mauricio Macri they polarized and shared out almost all the seats at stake. This time, there will be a cadre of thirds and no political force will have its own quorum to impose a legislative agenda, a promise repeated in the electoral campaign, in the coming presidential term.
Patricia Bullrich It is one of those that most insists on having laws enacted before the end of the year that change the course of the country. But with the numbers of this Sunday, it should be more measured. If Together for Change does not improve your performance in October, he would only get 44 of the 55 seats they put up for grabsTherefore, the interblock would drop from 116 to 105 votes, each time further away from the 129 needed to reach a quorum.
A piece of information that he left this Sunday further complicates the legislative projections of the ex-minister: If the same figures were repeated, there would be no allies that would allow him to open the venue without speaking with libertarians or Kirchnerists. The provincial parties (Misiones, Río Negro and Neuquén) accumulate five votes; and the federal interblock, coordinated by the governor of Córdoba, Juan Schiarettiwould drop from eight to seven votes.
The enclosure would be completed with five votes from the Left Front (which would add one for the province), José Luis Espert and the replacement of the elected governor of Santa Cruz, claudio vidal. Another consequence of the libertarian advance is that if Milei and JxC design a common agenda, the provincial parties would not be able to block it and their districts would lose weight in the negotiations with the Casa Rosada.
To add deputies, Bullrich is betting on stealing up to four points from Milei in October and try to blur it so that in December part of his legislative troop moves to Together for Change. But the stamp that gave the libertarian the illusion of winning the first round complicates the plan.
The JxC debacle is due to a decrease in votes in the large provinces, which are the ones that distribute the most deputies. With the results of the primaries, they would lose one seat for the City of Buenos Aires, another for Santa Fe, two for Buenos Aires and another two for Mendoza; and three for Córdoba. He also fell back in Entre Ríos, where he would stay with one of five deputies at stake; and they could not even renew their seats in Formosa, Chaco and San Juan.
An improvement in October by a few points could allow JxC to retain some of those seats, but it is difficult to allow them to negotiate on equal terms with any other political force to open the venue.
Free fall of Peronism
The results of this Sunday predict a historic debacle of Peronism in Deputies, which would fall from 118 to 91 deputies, very far from the quorum and with no chance of influencing the parliamentary agenda if there were an agreement between JxC and the libertarian troop.
Fernández’s 48 points in 2019 allowed the then Frente de Todos to win 68 seats, of which they would only retain 41 if they do not exceed the results of this Sunday. The biggest drop was in Buenos Aires, where with the numbers of this Sunday they earn 13 banas, six less than four years ago. The ruling party would also lose the two wins for Córdoba and Jujuy; he would win two of the four that they risk in Santa Fe, one of the three in Mendoza and three of the four in Ciudad.
But the greatest fall of Peronism occurs by trickle in the small provinces because in almost all the libertarians they reached the necessary floor to win at least one seat and in many cases they stole it from Peronism. In this way, Unión por la Patria would lose at least one seat in Chubut, Chaco, La Pampa, Neuquén, Río Negro, Salta, San Luis, Santa Cruz, Santiago del Estero, Tierra del Fuego and Tucumán.
Peronism was able to celebrate maintaining the two expiring seats in Entre Ríos and adding one more for Catamarca, one of the provinces that brings the best news in the legislative elections. It is not little at a time when, at least in the Chamber of Deputies, laws can come out without Peronist votes.
