The economic team is betting that in December prices have stabilized again at around 5% despite the rise in some seasonal products.
Wholesale inflation rose 6.3% in November and puts pressure on retail prices
According to INDEC, goods sold in the wholesale market increased at a much higher rate than the general CPI of 4.9% registered last month.
Official sources told infobae that the expectation is that the consumer price index (CPI) “is again below 5 percent”, like the 4.9% registered in November by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec).
“Everything indicates that it ends the same as in November; the doubt is the regulated ones and some seasonal ones”, indicated the official.
The Government wants to charge a tax to the banks or to the game to comply with the Court and pay the City
He will send a bill to be dealt with in extraordinary sessions. The President seeks not to fall into “contempt” but that it is Congress that defines where the $ 110,000 million that the ruling costs in 2023 come from
In fact, the high-frequency measurements followed by the economic team show that in the first fortnight of the month the increase in consumer prices was 4.5 percent.
In this way, inflation would end 2022 at around 96 percent, compared to the 33% estimated by the minister Martin Guzman a year ago and the 43% estimated at that time by the consultants who participate in the survey of market expectations (REM) prepared by the Central Bank. This year’s result will be the largest after the hyperinflation of the 1989-1990 period.
Activity at the end of 2022 stagnates and Massa is playing for a new rebound for the election year
The minister is confident that the economy will be able to surprise upwards in 2023, beyond the cautious forecasts of the IMF and consultants. This year would close with a rise of 5.5% of GDP
The minister’s team Sergio Massa recognizes that it will have to continue dealing with the delicate balance of “resetting certain prices so that they are not too far behind, such as utility rates, and maintaining control over others, such as food and beverages,” through the Fair Prices program , which will last throughout 2023.
In keeping with the idea of prioritizing compliance with the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Economy also promises to sustain the interest rate and the rate of devaluation above inflation, without ceasing to observe these variables so that it rises from prices don’t get hot.
In the electoral year that is already beginning, in the Palacio de Hacienda they know that they will have to be more attentive than ever to the political dynamics and they pray that the situation remains and improves on the margin so that the moderate positions continue to be located in the center of the ring.
Meanwhile, the analysts estimated in dialogue with infobae that inflation will end between 5.5% and 6 percent this month and around 96 percent for the year.
The exception is Ecolatina, which forecasts 4.2 percent. “The first fortnight of December the IPC Ecolatina registered 4.2% compared to the first fortnight of the previous month. For the month of December we expect it to also be at 4.2%; for the Ipc indec, we expect a number closer to 5%, which would give the second month of moderation of the inflationary dynamics in the comparison with the previous months; In any case, the year will end at 95.6%, the highest record since the end of hyperinflation,” he explained. Ana Albin.
Camilo Tiscornia, a partner of C&T, indicated that “a greater speed is observed in the rise in prices compared to November. Preliminarily, I imagine it will be close to 6 percent. This acceleration is due to the fact that “in November much of the slowdown was for food and now meat and fruit are rising more, although, at the same time, it is difficult to estimate the impact of the rise in prices due to their high segmentation.”
Meanwhile, ECO GO of Marina Dal Poggetto It projects inflation of 5.2%, slightly lower than expected a few days ago “due to slightly lower-than-estimated food inflation.”
“Regulated products drove the indicator for the month upwards, highlighting the increases in prepaid (6.5%), private schools in the province of Buenos Aires (10%) and in CABA (14%), tolls (90%) in the routes of the Atlantic corridor and the Buenos Aires-La Plata highway and in fuels (4%), among others”, indicated the ECO GO report of Sebastian Menescaldi.
With these results, the CPI would have grown 95.7% in general, food and beverages 94.5%, clothing 103.1%, recreation 149%, education 108% and home equipment 93.9 percent, according to the ECO GO price survey.
For his part, Isidro Guardarucci of the Latin American Economic Research Foundation (FIEL) estimated that the month will close at 6%, this year at 96.5% and 2023 at 110 percent.
Meanwhile, Analytica forecasts 5.4% inflation for December, due to “an increase in the seasonal price rate, such as gastronomy, hotels and something else in vegetables, plus a transfer of November wholesale prices,” according to its report. Executive Director, Claudio Caprarulo.
For its part, the Faculty of Economic Sciences of the UBA indicated that “a greater relative increase in the price of goods that constitute a basic necessity has been verified, reflecting the high increase in the cost of living. With food inflation in the order of 94% per year, the impact on the most vulnerable portion of society becomes noticeable”.
“This has been crystallized in a first semester where poverty fell 1 percentage point, while homelessness increased half a point. This lays the foundations of a weak social framework, where dependence on state assistance can be increased, so solving inflation becomes a pressing task, ”he added.
REM participants expect inflation for 2023 to accumulate a rise of 99.7% next December, compared to the 60% estimated by the Government.
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