The NHL column: The Leafs are the only original six team that has not won the Stanley Cup in modern times – now the maximum bet will save Toronto

The Toronto Maple Leafs are to hockey what Real Madrid, Manchester United and Bayern Munich are to soccer – a giant that is loved or hated with burning passion. This spring, the league’s most hyped team must finally find success.

After last weekend’s mega deal, Toronto of course also became the opening theme of the NHL podcast. Still not the only thing – trending thoughts, rumors and speculation are the common thread of the week.

This spring it will be 19 years since the playoffs in 2004. Then the Toronto Maple Leafs knocked out the Ottawa Senators in the seven-game series. In the second round, the Leafs faced the Philadelphia Flyers and were eliminated 2–4 in games.

Few could have guessed that it was the start of an unbroken streak for Toronto. Every playoff series since the one against the Flyers has ended in a loss for the team bathed in money, attention and fans.

Yet that may not be the most embarrassing truth. No one who follows the NHL has been able to avoid hearing about Toronto’s 13 Stanley Cup titles – second most behind the Montreal Canadiens. The club and the hockey city of Toronto are proud of their position in the NHL.

That not a single one of the Maple Leafs’ triumphs was won after the NHL expanded from a limited league, which consisted of six teams, is not quite as cheerful about. The most recent title is from 1967. When the NHL started up again, there were twelve teams, and that’s the way it is.

The time after the first expansion is called the modern era. During it, every other original six team except the Leafs has won the Stanley Cup. The Rangers once, Boston and Chicago three each, Detroit four and Montreal an incredible ten times.

However you twist and turn and talk about all the great Leafs teams over the past 50-odd years, the fact remains: the Toronto Maple Leafs are the least successful of all the original teams during the period when the NHL was more than a small sandbox with only Canadian players.

The giant, which according to Forbes magazine is worth two billion dollars – second in the NHL after the New York Rangers – has not even been to the finals since 1967. A pitiful five times since the expansion in 1967, Toronto has been among the top four, i.e. in the conference finals.

A week ago, Toronto GM Kyle Dubas announced that it would be enough. The drought ends here.

The patient needed the right medicine

In Toronto, since John Tavares was brought in in 2018, they have tried to achieve success with small adjustments and great confidence in the team’s star players: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and Morgan Rielly.

The Toronto son Tavares would be the father figure who gets the C on his chest and the puzzle becomes complete. Something has still been missed and then it is mainly two problem areas that have failed for years when it was most important in the first round of the playoffs, after very strong regular season.

The goaltending game has lost to the opponent’s most recently in the decisive playoff game. At the same time, there has been a lack of a sufficiently hard so-called sandpaper department to provide support for the goal-threatening top formations. No one has managed to score against the Leafs, but probably score more goals.

Ahead of this season, Dubas acquired a goaltending duo – Ilja Samsonov and Matt Murray – who measure up only the team in front does not let up. The Leafs get enough good goaltending to go as far as they want, because now they have a tandem – not just a card to stand or fall with.

Both Samsonov and Murray have delivered save percentages of over 91. Although Samsonov seems to be the better keeper of the duo, a (healthy) Murray should be able to handle the job if there are problems. Matt Murray has actually won the Stanley Cup twice.

Another clear choice was not to try to make a huge change to the back team, but to change how the Leafs defend as fifth. The results were not long in coming: Toronto has conceded the third-fewest goals in the tough Eastern Conference and has the third-best goal difference in the entire league.

If you dig a little deeper into the statistics, Toronto is fourth best in the league regarding the expected goal percentage: 54.5 percent of the goals so far should have been scored by the Leafs. The fact that the team has in reality accounted for 56.7 percent of the goals in their matches shows excellence.

Something has still been missing for the faith to be strong in the Leafs’ chances of getting out of the cruel Atlantic division in the playoffs. Tampa awaits in the first round and probably Boston in the second. Both teams have been prohibitive for Toronto for years.

Then Kyle Dubas brought in Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari from St. Louis Blues.

“All in” – in a smart way

Conn Smythe and Selke winner (as of 2019) O’Reilly and rock-hard bottom-six center Acciari are exactly what at least this self-proclaimed doctor would have prescribed for the Leafs.

Actually, it feels like a genius move. Both are direct antidotes when knocking down Tampa. The “Bolts” are very good at taking the air out of the opponent in a playoff series by being better in close matches, drawing and dominating the neutral zone.

For years, Ryan O’Reilly has been among the league’s absolute best when it comes to not finishing second, regardless of who he is matched up against. He is also one of the league’s top five scorers. Acciari in turn is the “poor man’s” O’Reilly. Especially in a fourth chain, he plays winning ice hockey.

In his first games in the Leafs jersey, O’Reilly has also clearly shown that he has offensive qualities of a high level, with the right chain mates. The first hat-trick in years came in the third game and the chain with Tavares and Marner on the wings looks sensationally good.

An absolutely right decision by Dubas to go after an elite player without star status. O’Reilly doesn’t challenge the team’s core. If he came from Tampere, the motto would be: “we are not going to make a number out of this” (“ei tehrä tästa ny numeroo”).

Many GMs have fallen into the trap of trying to bring in a superstar for the playoffs, only to see the team’s chemistry take a beating.

Noel Acciari then? Dubas was looking for him already this summer, but failed to find room under the salary cap. Both parties were keen on a relationship, so the homework seems to have been done.

Presumably, Dubas is not yet done with the trades before the three-year deadline. Even now, you can still say that Toronto’s GM has decided to go for the jackpot by thinking big. That he did it the right way, with his tongue in his mouth, is strong.

Fear is Duba’s weapon?

It’s great to see how the trade that sent Bo Horvat from Vancouver to the Islanders started a chain reaction. Suddenly, big names are moving and teams are equipping themselves with players who don’t just make a marginal difference. Or with primers that have lost their spark.

After the Islanders acquired Vancouver captain Horvat, the Rangers flexed their muscles and restocked with reliable scorer Vladimir Tarasenko, defensive back Niko Mikkola and forward Tyler Motte. Immediately, the Rangers became a credible Stanley Cup favorite to say the least.

The three that Dubas made lifted the Leafs another step higher – and there could be more trades.

Finally, winning candidates dare to push the plate into the carpet here and now instead of balancing on a tightrope that will join the present with the coming years. Never understood the principle of living in the future, even as franchise players’ best-before dates are fast approaching.

Feels like a lot of GMs really care the most about their own rear end. When goals are always in the future, there are plenty of excuses for lack of success right now.

In Kyle Duba’s case, fear can be his weapon. Even Dubas himself has said outright that the time on his hourglass will run out this spring if the Leafs continue to fail in the playoffs.

Colleagues Lou Lamoriello and Chris Drury’s big streak, combined with the backs against the wall situation, was perhaps what caused Dubas to wake up. Time to sacrifice uncertain draft picks and bet right now on a team that brings to mind the time before the salary cap.

The Maple Leafs’ inflated 24/7 show can be compared to the Manchester United, Bayern Munich or Real Madrid of the soccer world. Never in modern times has the Leafs roster lived up to such comparisons so well.

Now only the successes are missing.

Thank you for reading.

Sources: nhl.com, naturalstattrick.com, hockeydb.com.