In recent weeks, China has actively profiled itself as a peacemaker in the Middle East. But experts see a huge gap between the desired and the actual influence of the country.
Will China become the new major diplomatic power in the Middle East? A few weeks ago, the country launched a diplomatic charm offensive in the Middle East to present itself as a peacemaker between long-time rivals in the region. In fact, an agreement was reached in mid-March that normalized relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia after decades of hostility. Now Beijing wants to start peace talks between Israel and Palestine.
Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang called for “calm and restraint” on both sides of the conflict after talks with high-ranking Israeli and Palestinian officials. The basic way out of the current situation is to resume peace talks and implement the two-state solution, he said.
The Chinese chief diplomat encouraged Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen to resume peace talks with the Palestinians and said China was ready to support them. In a separate meeting with Palestinian Foreign Minister Riyad Al-Maliki, Qin reiterated this intention at a time when tensions between Israel and Palestine are rising again.
Diplomacy as protection of interests
What motivates China to make its offers? According to some experts, Beijing sees them as a way of protecting its own economic and political interests in the region. The state leadership sees the long-standing disputes between different countries as destabilizing and a potential threat to its long-term interests.
“China’s most important interests in the Middle East are acquiring resources and markets,” said Dawn Murphy, professor of international security studies at the US Air War College. “This includes not only economic but also political interests.”
China wants to help settle the dispute seriously because the country benefits from stability in the region. “Also, by acting as a mediator, it can show that it is a great power,” Murphy told DW.
Before the deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia, China had long been the most important trading partner for countries in the Middle East. It bought oil from several states in the region and invested the equivalent of more than 248 billion euros in the region between 2005 and 2022. The Silk Road Initiative, China’s flagship global infrastructure project launched in 2013, has also helped Beijing expand its influence in the region.
Gap between claim and reality
However, not all observers are convinced of the Chinese diplomatic initiatives. Experts say the gap between expectations and reality is huge. “Beijing saw an opportunity in the Iran-Saudi Arabia deal and offered a negotiating platform,” said Tuvia Gering, an expert on China-Middle East relations at the Diane and Guilford Glazer Center of the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel ( INSS).
However, according to Gering, the agreement concluded in March is less due to China and more to the two-year commitment of countries such as Oman, Iraq and the United States.
“And in the case of Israel and Palestine, both sides are not interested in starting peace talks. In addition, both parties are skeptical about China’s role as a balanced mediator,” says Gering.
Skeptics in Israel
“China may see itself as a balanced power vis-à-vis all parties. But in Israel this view is not shared. There, China is seen as a biased and cynical player with no serious interest in resolving the conflict. China is only concerned with scoring points diplomatically and geopolitically,” Gering continued.
After Qin signaled Beijing’s interest in supporting Israel-Palestine peace talks, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told CNBC on April 19 that he was unaware of any Chinese attempt to mediate in the conflict.
“We respect China, we have a lot to do with China. But we also know that we have an indispensable alliance with our great friend, the United States,” Netanyahu said at the time.
In addition to fundamental concerns about China’s intentions, Israel is also skeptical about Beijing’s continued support for Iran, experts say. Israel sees Iran as an enormous threat to its security.
“One cannot totally ignore the parallels between Beijing’s Israeli-Palestinian proposal and its ‘peace plan’ for the Ukraine war,” said Sari Arho Havren, visiting scholar at the University of Helsinki.
In both cases, Beijing cannot be considered a neutral party, according to Havren. Regarding the Ukraine war, it is on the side of Russia and in the Middle East so far on the side of Iran. “Up to now, China and Israel have hardly ever shared a vision for the future of the Middle East.”
Challenge of US dominance in the region?
As China seeks to expand its influence in the Middle East – such as expanding ties with Saudi Arabia – the international community is watching closely as the country challenges the region’s long-held US-dominated order.
China values maintaining balanced relations with all Middle Eastern countries, says Murphy. “There is no sign that Beijing will take sides in the constant attempt to present itself as a ‘peacemaker’.”
“China sees itself as an intermediary bringing together parties with whom China has good relations,” she said. “But I don’t think China wants to give any security guarantees. In any case, the countries in the region do not assume that China will play the same role as the USA,” Murphy continued.
It is true that China is unlikely to replace the US and become the most important regional security player. But overall, Gering believes, Beijing wants to rely less on US security commitments in the Middle East, which Beijing sees as counteracting increasing competition between the world’s two leading economies.
“China must take the initiative and encourage countries in the region to have more strategic autonomy. That could turn the Middle East into a multipolar region,” says Gering.
Adapted from the English by Kersten Knipp.
Author: William Yang
