The Russian winter offensive is under way – with limited success

Russia

A major offensive is expected on the anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Experts are skeptical. They assume smaller attacks that have already begun.

Peter Blunschi / watson.ch

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has it Ukraine deserted, for the second time since the Russian invasion began almost a year ago. After his Trip to Washington shortly before Christmas he was traveling in Europe. In London, Paris and at the EU summit in Brussels, the Ukrainian president asked for more arms supplies, especially fighter jets.

They will no longer have any influence on the current course of the war. This is going to be difficult for Ukraine, as Selenskyj has had to admit in recent days. On several sections of the front the Russian invaders have increased the pressure. Observers had long expected a major offensive in view of the February 24th anniversary.

The situation is difficult to assess from afar. However, there are indications that the Russian winter offensive has already begun. It doesn’t happen with a big bang, but by boosting attacks with the ones in the last one Autumn mobilized soldiers who are now transferred to the front and sent into battle.

“Not enough equipment”

On the other hand, renowned experts do not assume that there will be an offensive on a larger scale. Among them is Ukrainian-born Michael Kofman, one of the best experts on the Russian military. “Russia is focused on the Donbass, its offensive potential is limited,” said the US researcher in an interview with “Spiegel”.

He sums up the problem of the invaders in a simple way: “Not enough equipment, not enough artillery ammunition.” This shortcoming cannot be compensated for by a large number of new soldiers – we are talking about up to half a million – many of whom “never received weapon training,” Kofman told the “Spiegel”.

Objective: conquest of the Donbass

Although the Russian armaments factories are said to be running at full speed, the army seems to be running out of materials. That starts with the Precision Missiles. Attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure have become rare since the beginning of the year. But even with the artillery shells, supplies to the front seem to be sluggish.

in one Twitter thread Michael Kofman therefore reiterated his assessment that the Russian attacks should be limited to the complete conquest of the Donbass. This coincides with findings of the Ukrainian secret service, after which warlord Vladimir Putin ordered his generals to take Donbass by March.

Attacks in the Luhansk region

against allegations, Russia could also target large cities such as Kharkiv or the capital Kyiv, Kofman was skeptical. A renewed advance from Belarus towards Kyiv makes “little sense”. Russia has stationed too few troops in the neighboring country for this. And the Ukrainians have strengthened the border fortifications.

In the Donbass, however, the Russian offensive is underway. Serhiy Hajday, the Ukrainian governor of the Luhansk administrative region, wrote on Thursday Twitter of a “maximum escalation” in the direction of Kreminna: “The occupiers are trying to break through our defense lines.” From Kreminna the Russians could advance towards the city of Kramatorsk.

Both have problems with material

However, the Ukrainian defense mechanism is still holding up, as Hajdaj told the Reuters news agency. The attackers had achieved “no significant success”. However, the Ukrainians need heavy equipment and artillery ammunition, the governor emphasized: “Then we can not only defend ourselves, but launch a strong counter-offensive.”

Not only the Russians have a problem with the lack of supplies, but also the Ukrainians. This can be seen in the defense of the city of Bakhmut, which has been the subject of fierce fighting for months. In the last few days the fighting has intensified again, with heavy casualties on both sidesas reported by the Washington Post.

Wuhledar becomes a “meat grinder”

The Ukrainians noticed that the artillery fire had decreased, possibly due to a lack of supplies, and that the Russians were throwing their fighters into battle almost unprotected. “They don’t have many mortars and shells left, but they have inexhaustible human resources,” said a Ukrainian army spokeswoman.

It is doubtful whether such a tactic will be successful in the long term. This is evident in the small town of Wuhledar in the south of the Donetsk region, around which been fought for several days. Wuhledar has “become a meat grinder for the Russian army, with enormous implications for the larger offensive”, wrote the magazine “Forbes”.

Russian downward spiral

On Monday, for example, two mechanized battalions with several dozen T-80 tanks and armored personnel carriers attempted to attack. He ended up with heavy losses and a retreat. Around 30 destroyed battle tanks and armored personnel carriers remained behind. Photos and videos are said to show the bombed device and the bodies of dead soldiers.

For the military expert from “Forbes”, the Russian army is actually in a downward spiral: “Incompetence leads to even greater casualties, forcing the army to recruit more recruits, train them even less, and send them to the front even faster.” Where a motivated and hardened Ukrainian army awaits.

Ukraine still at an advantage

“If that’s all the Russians can pull off after a year of all-out fighting in Ukraine, the hyped winter offensive could be costly — and short,” Forbes concluded. Even the supposed minimum goal, the conquest of the entire Donbass, could be unattainable under these circumstances.

For Michael Kofman, despite personnel and material bottlenecks, Ukraine still has an advantage with a view to the rest of the year, also thanks to support from abroad. Replenishment is crucial so that she can go on the offensive herself in 2023. Zelenskyj’s fighter jets are probably not the decisive factor.