The first debates in the United States began with a series of meetings in 1858 between the then Republican candidate for the Senate from Illinois, Abraham Lincoln, and the Democratic senator, Stephen Douglas.
While these did not lead Lincoln to win the seat he sought, transcripts of his speeches distributed throughout the country won him the White House in 1860.
In 1960, the meetings between Vice President Richard M. Nixon and Democratic Senator John F. Kennedy changed the format of presidential campaigns when television brought the elections into American homes.
Although the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) has organized political confrontations since 1988, this time it was ignored due to the quick agreement of the two presidential rivals, Joe Biden y Donald Trumpwho will appear in person in two televised meetings without an audience, thus electrifying the campaigns.
The two dates, June 27 and September 10, will give voters a real opportunity to compare two different styles of governing.
Joe Biden and Donald Trump remain neck and neck in national polls, while the outcome will likely be decided in seven battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. “How those races play out will depend on who votes and who stays home,” says James Lindsay of the Council on Foreign Relations.
“Biden’s problem is that many voters think they are worse off now than they were four years ago, even if economic statistics show the opposite. Compounding the problem, voters appear to know little about the legislative achievements Biden is touting. Meanwhile, many Americans view Trump’s presidency in a better light than they did in 2020; a reassessment favored by Trump’s success in delaying the start of three of his four criminal trials” according to Lindsey.
More than 73 million people watched the debate between Biden and Trump in 2020, so any slip-up by both could have a negative impact, although, given that the two meetings will happen relatively early in the campaign, there may be time to correct bad results .
But, there are other issues at play.
One of the most fascinating ingredients of the presidential campaign is the continued loyalty shown to Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, even though she is not the Republican candidate.
Haley won 22 percent of the primary vote. The question is What are you going to do with this power base? Express support for Trump?
If she did so, it would cause mixed results because in principle, those votes are with her because her supporters do not want Trump to be the next president. In addition, it would not only upset those who have supported her, but it would also confuse her voters who would not know where to transfer your support.
Would they lean towards Biden? Maybe, if he does well in both debates, but others might look for someone else in the Republican party or an independent.
For now, the independent, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has been dismissed by Trump for not being “a serious candidate.”
Kennedy has attracted unfavorable publicity with his views on anti-Covid vaccines and his conspiracy theories, although his campaign continues to demand to be included in the debates, but that will not happen.
The question about Haley is more interesting. Could Haley abandon Trump and the Republicans and ask her followers to vote for Biden?
It seems unlikely, since a pure-blooded Republican like her would damage any future political possibility, and no Republican would forgive her for being responsible for giving Biden another four years in the White House.
If she does not declare herself in favor of either Trump or Biden, she could still be responsible for helping the Democrat win, but it cannot be dismissed that she is in a powerful position not to be a presidential candidate.
She could still support Trump in the expectation of obtaining a position in his administration, although if she remains silent, she will surely be ignored by the Republican if he wins the election.
Looking ahead to the upcoming debates, much will depend on whether they devolve into meaningless verbal cackling or whether a proper, adult presentation of points of view can be managed.
