According to the Ukrainian military intelligence service, the publication of secret documents in the USA has no impact on Kiev’s planned offensive in the defensive war against Russia. Moscow is the only beneficiary of the data leak, Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the military intelligence service in Kiev, admitted in an interview with the ABC News television station that appeared on Monday night. “But that will not be able to affect the actual results of the offensive operation,” he said. The affair will not have a lasting negative effect on the relationship between Washington and Kiev, said the 37-year-old.
counter-offensive in the coming weeks
Military experts expect Kiev to launch a counter-offensive in the coming weeks to recapture areas occupied by Russians. The published secret documents, however, revealed doubts on the part of the USA: Such an approach could lead to much smaller gains in territory than the two offensives in the autumn, when Ukraine managed to recapture large areas in the north near Kharkiv and in the south near Cherson.
It was also said that the Ukrainian air defense was increasingly weakened. Should Russia gain air supremacy in the war, given the vast superiority of its air force, it could severely damage Ukraine.
hope for success
Budanov admitted that Kiev urgently needed the offensive to be successful. There is currently no pressure from the western allies. “But without victories, sooner or later questions will arise as to whether it makes sense to continue supporting Ukraine,” he said. The US think tank ISW had previously published a similar assessment, citing Ukrainian Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov.
In the long term, Moscow’s mobilization potential in the war should not be underestimated. Russia has larger population reserves and can switch to a war economy to continue fighting if the war drags on.
