The third anniversary of a political event would normally be completely uninteresting. In relation to the United Kingdom’s relationship with the European unification project, however, several dates will play a decisive role this month.
At the beginning of the year, it was 50 years since Great Britain, Ireland and Denmark joined what was then the EEC – a happy anniversary that was completely ignored on the island. This was of course due to the anniversary, which will be celebrated for the third time this Tuesday: the exit from the EU on the night of January 31st to February 1st, 2020.
And ten years have passed since the initial impetus for this isolation step: In January 2013, then Prime Minister David Cameron gave in to national populists inside and outside his party and held out the prospect of a referendum on British EU membership.
52:48 percent was the narrow result in June 2016.
Majority of Britons are now against Brexit
At that time, many English people living in the neglected regions of the island felt they were the winners. In the county of Lincolnshire in east England, more than 70 percent of eligible voters voted in favor of Brexit in June 2016, and nationally, residents of the market town of Boston, who gave their name to the much more famous settlement on the other side of the Atlantic, came out on top with 75.6 percent.
While the roughly 35,000 Bostonians were part of the majority of the population at the time, they are all alone these days. According to a survey by market researcher Focaldata for the Unherd website, with the exception of Boston, there is now a majority everywhere on the island who consider the exit from the EU to be a mistake.
These include neighboring constituencies in Lincolnshire, traditionally conservative strongholds, as well as poor, always pro-Labor districts in the metropolises of London and Birmingham, where at least 60 percent wanted Brexit.
Unlike the referendum or the general election in 2019, the Brexit vote and the left-right orientation of the British would increasingly fit together again, analyzes James Kanagasooriam from Focaldata: “The exit vote is fading and differs less from the conservative electorate.”
52:48
percent was the narrow result of the Brexit referendum in June 2016.
That’s not good news for the Tory government of Brexiteer Rishi Sunak, the fifth Conservative Prime Minister since that June day that fundamentally changed Britain’s domestic and foreign policy, just in time for the third anniversary of Brexit.
Studying became more expensive as a result of Brexit
The Tories are regularly 20 points behind Keir Starmer’s Labor opposition in the polls. All of the claims by the head of government and his divided party that Brexit will bring glorious progress to neglected regions seem increasingly implausible in the face of reality. On the contrary, the disadvantages of the isolation step are becoming increasingly clear.
It was only last weekend that the university authority HESA shocked the billion-dollar university sector with new bad news. Since the final exit from the internal market and customs union at the end of 2020, the number of students from the EU has fallen by more than half.
While young Germans, Italians or Baltics could previously study on the island for the already high price of £9,250 (€10,515) per year, they now have to shell out up to £38,000 (€43,190) for the same bachelor’s degree in Bristol, Nottingham or Cambridge. Too much, most people think.
The universities can’t be okay with that, as it makes them all the more dependent on students from Asia. Not least under pressure from the government, the high proportion of students from the communist dictatorship in China is to be noticeably reduced in the coming years.
Elsewhere, too, Brexit is having a painful financial impact. The independent budget authority OBR speaks of a loss of growth of four percent, not least due to the “significant damper” on British foreign trade.
15
percent smaller are now exports to the EU.
Exports to the EU alone have recently fallen by 15 percent. The continuing dispute over Northern Ireland’s special status is adding to the uncertainty of industry and trade.
Northern Ireland protocol to be rewritten
There, British and EU negotiators are struggling to shape the so-called Northern Ireland Protocol, which was part of the withdrawal agreement. It is intended to keep the land border with the Republic open to the south, as demanded by the Catholic nationalist populace, but at the same time ensure the integrity of the internal market.
Therefore, customs and import controls were imposed between Northern Ireland and the British mainland, which angered the pro-king-loyal Protestant Unionists.
Its leading party, the DUP under Jeffrey Donaldson, even says the protocol needs to be completely rewritten. It’s out of the question, according to Brussels. Irish-born US President Joe Biden is putting pressure on all sides from the other side of the Atlantic.
Sooner or later Britain will have closer ties with the EU again.
Herman Hauserphysicist and entrepreneur
The 80-year-old would love to visit the Emerald Isle in April on the anniversary of the peace treaty, which was not least due to American negotiating skills. That always gives wonderful pictures for the next election campaign.
The main obstacle to reaching an agreement is likely to be the extent to which the European Court of Justice (ECJ) should act as an arbitrator in any disputes between the contracting parties. Donaldson and the Tory hardliners have so far strictly rejected this. Now the diplomats of both sides are in demand.
After all, some signals from London speak for a cautious rapprochement with the largest domestic market in the world. Opposition leader Starmer also advocates a more pragmatic approach to Brussels, which the majority of the electorate seems to want.
They are encouraged by many celebrities, Hermann Hauser for example. Like many other scientists, the Vienna-born physicist and entrepreneur is struggling with the Brexit in his adopted country. “Sooner or later,” the 74-year-old recently explained to the BBC, “the kingdom will have closer ties with the EU again.”
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