Donald Trump as a Republican candidate is intractable, like those Number one of sport that accumulate victories without knowing defeat. Although the wide judicial offensive that facesthe former president of the United States revalidates time and again, according to the polls, his great advantage over the rest of the candidates who will contest the party’s primaries for the 2024 elections. The latest survey, from the University of Siena for the newspaper The New York Timesconfirms the primacy this Monday: with 54% support, he is 37 points ahead of second-placed Ron DeSantis, who obtains 17%.
A long way behind, three candidates register a meager 3% (Mike Pence, who was Trump’s vice president; Sen. Tim Scott and former Trump UN ambassador Nikki Haley) and, in the trailing platoon, with a paltry 2%, they follow them Chris Christie, Former Governor of New Jersey, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. The Siena poll does not even show the rest of the candidates – six more – with support of 1% or less. The Republican primaries are especially crowded in this call, with 13 names.
From the data, a conclusion can be inferred: not even adding the votes of the rest of the candidates, if they decided to withdraw from the race, DeSantis could prevail over Trump in the primaries. Support for the former president also increases considerably among the party’s most conservative voters, giving him a 50-point advantage, 65% compared to 15% for DeSantis. The Florida governor scores poorly in key segments of the party, electorally speaking: he only gets 9% support among voters over 65 and 13% among those without a college degree. The workers of blue collar -workers, factory workers, etc.- remain faithful to Trump as in 2016.
Other recent polls, such as the one by Morning Consult – updated on July 25 – give Trump an even greater distance: 59% support compared to 16% for DeSantis; that is to say, 43 points of difference. As DeSantis’ campaign forcibly undergoes a reset to make up ground, each judicial setback -and Trump has had several so far this year- distances his candidacy from the rest a little more. In the aforementioned poll, Ramaswamy appears in third place, with an 8% intention to vote, who has always been conciliatory with Trump, even enthusiastically supporting him in the face of the judicial attack. Potential voters in the Republican Party primaries are 32 points more likely to have recently heard something positive about the businessman, which is, according to this survey company, the highest level of expectation in the sector, an extreme that some surveys confirm but not that of Siena.
In the average number of polls projected by the reliable FiveThirtyEight page, Trump obtained 52.6% on Monday, ahead of DeSantis (15.6%) and Ramaswany (6.3%). In fourth place appears Pence (third in the one published by The New York Times), with a slightly higher percentage, 4.3%. Polls like the YouGov one for the magazine The Economist reflect roughly the same advantage of Trump as that of Siena for The New York Times. Another especially reliable projection, that of IPSOS/Reuters, gave Trump 47% support at the beginning of July compared to 19% for DeSantis, a greater advantage than the 44%-29% result registered before the first impeachment of the former president in New York at the end of March.
According to the charts, Trump’s popularity among his voters has skyrocketed since then, when the Manhattan grand jury voted in favor of indicting him for the stormy daniels casethe payment of black money to the porn actress to silence an extramarital affair in the 2016 campaign. His campaign registered a record number of donations after the news broke, while his intention to vote skyrocketed. According to IPSOS/Reuters projections, at the beginning of July Trump had 47% support compared to 19% for the next qualifier, a greater – wider – advantage than the 44%-29% registered before the first indictment.
Although 61% of Americans are in favor of rejuvenating their political class -in Congress there are a good number of octogenarian legislators-, Trump, 77, will try to take revenge with Joe Biden, 80, in the November 2024 presidential election. The charges he faces will not stop him –two confirmedfor him stormy daniels case and for the Mar-a-Lago paperswith a trial in March and May of next year, plus two other foreseeable ones, for his role in the storming of the Capitol and his attempt to reverse the election result in Georgia in 2020-, not even be convicted of any of the charges.
FOUNTAIN: The country
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