Is the war over soon? Anne Will’s guests discussed what makes the West’s inflated expectations of Ukraine’s counteroffensive so dangerous.
The Ukraine is militarily under pressure and facing a mammoth task. With the help of the weapons supplied by the West, they want to reconquer strategically important territory from the Russian occupying forces.
Anne Will discussed the chances of success of this project with her guests on Sunday evening. “Ukraine’s counter-offensive – can it turn the tide in the war?” the moderator had given her ARD talk show as a question.
The guests
- Saskia Esken, SPD Chairwoman
- Norbert Röttgen, CDU foreign policy officer
- Wolfgang Ischinger, President of the Board of Trustees of the Munich Security Conference
- Andriy Melnyk, Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine
- Nicole Deitelhoff, peace and conflict researcher
The Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Andriy Melnyk, who was connected from Kiev, called his country’s planned counterattack a “glimmer of hope for the people”. At the same time, the former Ukrainian ambassador to Germany promoted the delivery of fighter jets and ammunition. He tried to lower expectations of the offensive in order to take pressure off the Ukrainian military.
Is solidarity with Ukraine at risk?
Wolfgang Ischinger also warned against raising false hopes. It is most likely that the liberation of occupied areas will take many months. To believe that everything will be over in a few weeks is completely wrong and “poison for the necessary long-term support that Ukraine will need”.
The concern that was hidden behind these statements shaped the entire talk: disappointment at the lack of rapid success could first cause the West to lose awareness of the war and then its solidarity with Ukraine. The US presidential elections at the end of 2024 were repeatedly recalled in the round. CDU politician Norbert Röttgen feared that the Republican camp, led by a hardliner like Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis, could try to profit from the dissatisfaction with the course of the war and dissolve the non-partisan consensus on the issue.
However, Nicole Deitelhoff also recognized signs of wear and tear on this side of the Pacific. The professor of international relations warned that identification with Ukraine’s problems could end in Europe if the offensive petered out. “It will then be all the more difficult to secure the support of the population. And that is necessary: there are many elections coming up, not only in the USA,” the scientist pointed out.
CDU politician Röttgen accuses Scholz of hesitation
Instead, Röttgen – especially in Germany – saw the problem as more on the part of the government. While he was proud of “how sensible, how empathetic, how solidary” people reacted, he was particularly harsh on the Chancellor. “Olaf Scholz is the one in Europe and in the West who was always hesitant. He was unwilling,” the Christian Democratic foreign policy expert criticized the Social Democratic head of government.
In view of what is at stake, he has no understanding for “this lethargy, this inaction, this swerving,” Röttgen said. “It’s also about us. It’s about the future of Europe in the coming decades: whether it will be peaceful, whether it will be free, whether we will have rearmament again, whether we will be divided again,” emphasized the member of the Foreign Affairs Committee . Röttgen’s conclusion: If Germany had lived up to its leadership role, Europe would be more united today and the Ukrainian army would be better equipped.
