Warsaw, Poland- On a day marked by two rival duels to bolster loyalties, President Joe Biden wrapped up a three-day trip to Europe on Wednesday pledging America’s commitment to its allies as Russian President Vladimir Putin gave him a warmly welcomed China’s top diplomat to Moscow and rallied the pro-war Russians.
As the anniversary of Ukraine’s invasion of Moscow approaches, Biden met in Warsaw, Poland, with leaders from NATO’s eastern flank, acknowledging that “you know better than anyone what is at stake in this conflict, not just for Ukraine, but for the freedom of democracies across Europe and around the world.”
At the same time, Putin told a boisterous crowd of tens of thousands at a stadium rally that “there is an ongoing battle on our historic borders, for our people,” just after he tried to shore up his most important partnership in a meeting with the top Chinese diplomat, Wang Yi.
Taken together, the scenes created the impression that the world is retiring in two blocks that have similarities to those of the Cold War.
This time, many former Eastern Bloc countries (Hungary is a notable exception) are siding with the West to oppose Putin’s aggression.
And China and Russia, putting aside their many differences, are conducting military exercises together and deepening their financial ties as each faces Western sanctions.
But the reality is even more complicated.
Many other powers, including India, Turkey and Israel, remain undecided, continuing to buy oil and gas from Russia or working diplomatically with Putin while buying weapons from the United States and remaining in its defense orbit. That has sparked a messy behind-the-scenes effort by both sides to win support.
For Biden, the question is whether Western allies have the wherewithal to continue arming and supporting the Ukrainian government at the levels necessary to hold off an emerging Russian offensive and deter Putin from once again trying to take over the entire country.
For Putin, the doubts may be even greater, even as he tries to convey confidence and public support.
An offensive that began in recent weeks has yet to make any substantial progress. And while he welcomed Wang and the Kremlin spoke of an upcoming visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping, it’s clear that China fears being seen as supporting the war, and at a time when US officials are publishing intelligence information suggesting that Putin is once again seeking weapons and technology from Beijing.
“China is willing to work with Russia to maintain a strategic focus, deepen political mutual trust and enhance strategic coordination,” Wang told Putin. He also said that the Sino-Russian partnership “is not directed at any third party and will not accept any third party’s meddling, let alone accept any third party’s coercion.”
That was a clear reference to the United States, which has threatened that any material aid from China to Moscow’s war effort would result in economic retaliation.
Keeping China by his side is a priority for Putin as Russia views Beijing as a critical trading partner in the face of Western sanctions. In an apparent nod to China’s discomfort at being seen as a military ally, Putin said in his televised opening remarks to Wang that “economic issues” were “above all” the field in which the two countries’ relationship was “reaching new frontiers”.
Even so, Chinese and Russian naval ships are conducting exercises off the coast of South Africa this week, a reminder that the two countries are also deepening their military cooperation.
Biden took advantage of his session with allies at the royal castle in Warsaw to repeat his pledge to “defend literally every inch of NATO.” So far, the Kremlin hasn’t attacked outside Ukraine’s borders, but that restriction hasn’t extended to cyberspace: Google recently reported that Russia’s cyberattacks against computer users in NATO countries in 2022 increased by 300% with compared to the same period in 2020.
Biden, who championed post-Cold War order as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and as vice president, used the meeting in Warsaw to underscore how much the world has changed in a year.
“The idea that more than 100,000 troops would invade another country, since World War II, none of that has happened,” Biden said. “Things have radically changed. And we have to, we have to make sure we change them back.”
Putin offered a markedly different message, saying he was restoring Russia to its rightful place and reuniting territories he says are part of the Russian empire. Yet Putin’s public events on Wednesday spoke to some of the risks of his choppy war, the precise goals of which he did little to clarify in his 100-minute state of the nation address the day before.
Wang arrived in Moscow after visiting Western European countries, where he tried to persuade their leaders that Beijing wants to encourage an end to the war in Ukraine. But Wang’s published comments to Putin and other Russian officials indicated that Beijing will not risk its friendship with Moscow over Ukraine.
“Both sides engaged in an in-depth exchange of views on the Ukraine issue,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said. Wang, he said, “approved of Russia’s reaffirmation that it is willing to resolve the issue through dialogue and negotiations.”
After the meeting, Putin took up the home front. He took a stage at the Moscow stadium that hosted the 2018 World Cup men’s soccer final and told Russians in the stands, many of them students on buses and government workers, that his soldiers were fighting. “at our historic borders, for our people.”
“Russia!” Putin thundered into his microphone, leading the crowd in a chant.
The official occasion was a Kremlin-organized celebration of a military holiday, Defenders of the Fatherland Day. But it seemed like a clear effort by Putin to show his country and the world a stamp of public approval a day after his state of the nation address, in which he painted a picture of war as the new normal. from the country.
“All our people are defenders of the fatherland,” Putin said at the rally. “When we are united, we have no equal.”
In Biden’s meeting with NATO leaders, the message was quite clear: If Putin were to order tanks in other European countries, the nine nations along the military alliance’s eastern flank would be the most likely targets.
With Biden listening, President Klaus Iohannis of Romania urged the group to stand firmly behind Ukraine, partly as a way to ensure peace for people living in Russia’s shadow.
“The war has brought nothing but suffering and despair, murder and displacement of millions of Ukrainians, unprecedented destruction and uncertainty,” Lohannis said. “The leaders of the eastern flank have a duty to stand firm in defense of our peace.”
In a speech from the royal castle in Warsaw on Tuesday, Biden was adamant about America’s commitment to defending NATO allies, declaring that the guarantee to come to the aid of any threatened ally “is rock solid.” ”.
