“Victory Day”: Surprising state guest visits Putin’s parade

Russia

On the 78th anniversary of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War II, the traditional military parade on Red Square in Moscow ended without an air show, despite the clear skies.

According to official information, around 8,000 soldiers are deployed in Red Square – apparently including men who have fought in Ukraine in recent months. Contrary to what was originally announced, a number of foreign heads of state and government were guests in the honorary gallery – one provided an element of surprise.

Kazakhstan’s President Tokayev attends parade in Moscow

In addition to Belarus, Armenia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan also took part. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has repeatedly criticized Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine in the past. According to experts, he literally rebelled against Putin – now he shows himself side by side with him in Moscow. Why?

“The participation surprises me,” says Central Asia expert Temur Umarov when asked by watson. The political scientist conducts research at the Carnegie Foundation for “International Peace”. He would not have expected such a joint appearance so early.

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (centre) next to Putin in Moscow on “Victory Day”. Bild: Pool Sputnik Kremlin/AP / Gavriil Grigorov

“Perhaps if the war in Ukraine had dragged on for several years,” says Umarov. At this point, the visit was very surprising. After all, there are many signs that Kazakhstan is moving away from Russia.

Fear of Russia in Kazakhstan is probably great

Because: The war of aggression on Ukraine shook up many Kazakhs. This is also observed by the social scientist Azamat Junisbai from Pitzer College in California. Even those who previously had nothing to do with politics are interested in what is happening. “Because it’s so real: it could have been Kazakhstan or we could be next,” says the native Kazakh in an earlier conversation with watson.

“Apparently Tokayev, like other Central Asian heads of state, assumes that showing up with Putin is no longer so toxic,” estimates Umarov. This is also an indication that Putin should not be “erased from the picture” so quickly when it comes to Central Asian politics.

Kazakhstan is partially assisting Ukrainian civilians on the ground

Tokayev is certainly aware that his visit could draw criticism from the West, says Umarov. By attending Moscow, he risks undermining his credibility by speaking words of support towards Ukraine. Among other things, Kazakhstan is helping local Ukrainians with the so-called “yurts of invincibility”.

Kazakhstan set up these auxiliary yurts in the Ukrainian cities of Bucha and Kiev. They are places where people in Ukraine can rest and warm up or drink tea and charge their phones.

Tokayev is probably looking for a middle ground

Umarov tries to understand the Kazakh President’s decision: in the end, Kazakhstan and Russia share a long history. The “Day of Victory” is historically significant. “Tokayev was probably looking for a pragmatic solution here,” says the native Uzbek. But for Putin, the appearance next to the Central Asian presidents is a skilful PR campaign.

Vladimir Putin and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev on Victory Day in Moscow. Bild: Pool Sputnik Kremlin / Vladimir Smirnov

According to Umarov, this allows Putin to show that the Central Asian countries – especially Kazakhstan – are not turning away from him and are moving closer to the West. Although the mood in Kazakhstan has changed dramatically since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Ethnic Kazakhs in particular are afraid of Russia

In an interview with the dpa news agency, political scientist Dimash Alschanow said there was great concern at the beginning of the war that such an imperialistic Russia could theoretically invade Kazakhstan. “Especially ethnic Kazakhs are afraid.”

According to experts, ethnic Kazakhs in particular are increasingly turning their backs on Russia.Bild: NUR.KZ / Vladimir Tretyakov

In the meantime, however, the unrest among many has subsided somewhat – because Moscow, which has suffered a number of defeats in Ukraine, is clearly not militarily prepared for another war, says the expert.

(With material from the dpa)