Minsk/Moscow.
The Ukrainian leadership expects a Russian offensive towards Kyiv. Now there are signs of mobilization in Belarus.
Memories are awakened to the winter of 2021/22. Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Today he sends Kremlin thousands of soldiers to Belarus again. Again, the troops practice joint maneuvers. And just like a year ago, when Western secret services warned of a Russian invasion, Moscow and Minsk are only talking about “protecting the borders”.
The Ukrainian leadership, on the other hand, is sure that the Russian army will try again Belarus to advance against Kyiv. It’s less than 100 kilometers from the border to the city. “Sooner or later there will be such a major offensive,” says Roman Bessmertny, who was once the Ukrainian ambassador in Minsk and later negotiated with Moscow about the situation in Donbass.
Ukraine War: Russia and Belarus joint air maneuvers
There, in the east, the Russian records Wagner squad currently successful at Soledar and Bachmut. This development increases fears in Kyiv of a new front in the north and a Russian pincer attack. But how acute is the danger since Russian and Belarusian soldiers began a two-week air force maneuver on Monday?
Western military leaders do not assume that an advance on Kyiv will then follow. The Austrian guards commander Markus Reisner, for example, considers the forces in Belarus to be “much too much weakto deliver a massive punch”.
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15,000 Russian soldiers are stationed in Belarus
In fact, there are currently only about 15,000 Russian soldiers on the ground, barely half as many as a year ago. “It would be insane to attempt an advance with these forces,” says Reisner. The officer is convinced that the Kremlin’s troops in Belarus are primarily used to tie down Ukrainian units that are not like that in Belarus Donbass or can be used in the south.
The British made a similar statement intelligence. In the west, the region is monitored particularly closely because Belarus borders the NATO states of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. Should the former Soviet republic become a deployment area for Russian troops again, this would further increase the risk of a direct confrontation with NATO. That was already indicated in the autumn when a Russian-made rocket exploded in Poland, killing two people. In the end, the projectile turned out to be a stray from the Ukrainian air defense system.
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Russia shoots down Iranian drones from Belarus into Ukraine
For its part, the leadership in Kyiv points out that Russia is already using Belarusian airspace for attacks rockets and Iranian drones. International law experts have long viewed the regime of ruler Alexander Lukashenko as a war party. But that only makes the situation in the country more explosive. Belarus is a powder keg with the fuse already set.
especially professionals as the Minsk political scientist Valery Karbalevich is convinced: If the Russian army fails in Ukraine, then things will not only get tight for domestic politics, but even more so for Lukashenko. Belarus is economically and financially dependent on Russia. Above all, Lukashenko is politically isolated. The EU hasn’t even recognized him as president since the rigged 2020 election.
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“Lukashenko is preparing to take part in an offensive”
“Putin and Lukashenko are in the same boat,” says Belarusian opposition leader Svetlana Tichanovskaya. But does that also mean that Lukashenko to a mobilization would be willing to assist in his imperial ambitions? Opinions in the exile opposition differ on this.
Tichanovskaya does not believe that Belarusian soldiers will be deployed in Ukraine. After all, “the vast majority of people in the country are against war”. Her most important comrade-in-arms Pavel Latuschko, on the other hand, is convinced: “Lukashenko is preparing to take part in an offensive.” There are already signs of mobilization in the country. So be potential recruits asked to surrender their passports. In particular, emergency services from the Ministry of the Interior are no longer allowed to leave the country.
Lukashenko wants to tighten the death penalty
However, this points more to Lukashenko’s growing fear of new ones demonstrations towards mobilization. Especially since a wave of protests on the part of the opposition would hardly remain as peaceful as in the “Summer of Freedom” 2020. In the country, no one has forgotten the orgies of beatings by the Omon special police. And neither does arbitrary justice. To this day, prominent leaders of the opposition are in prison, such as the musician Maria Kolesnikova and Nobel Peace Prize winner Ales Byaljazki.
But Lukashenko’s greatest fear is apparently an attempted coup from within his own ranks. This is indicated by a planned tightening towards the death penalty. According to this, civil servants and military personnel should be able to be sentenced to death for treason in the future.
Rail partisans carried out attacks on railway lines
Belarus is the only country in Europe that still carries out the death penalty – as of shot in the neck. Lukashenko had already had the scope expanded in the spring. Since then, execution has been threatened for “planning or attempting an act of terrorism”.
Background were several attacks of so-called rail partisans on railway lines in Belarus. At the beginning of the war, hackers attacked the software in interlockings and signaling systems. The central goal was apparently to disrupt the logistics and supplies of the Russian army in Belarus. The series of attacks only subsided after the Kremlin troops withdrew from northern Ukraine.
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