The parties’ success embarrassed German Chancellor Olaf Scholz by overtaking his party, and led French President Emmanuel Macron to call early legislative elections.
What the right got is just the latest example of how Discontent with globalization and immigration has fueled a conservative backlash in prosperous Western democracies. Former President Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 was the clearest example of this, and the trends that propelled the right in Europe will likely allow him to win another term in November due to discontent with Democrats.
Despite the right’s gains in recent European elections, the political center is likely to retain control of the EU parliament.
“We are clearly at one of those points where the wind can blow in any direction,” said Charlies A. Kupchan, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, a foreign policy and international relations think tank based in New York.
In the US, the issue of immigration has become one of the main issues of the electoral campaign due to the burden it represents on taxpayers, in addition to a potential threat to national security, issues that President Joe Biden’s administration ignored during three and a half years and has only paid attention to it a few months before the elections due to its low popularity in the polls.
What gave impetus to the right in Europe?
All EU countries have different political dynamics, and EU parliamentary elections are often an opportunity for voters in each country to cast a symbolic vote against those in power in their own nation, as they vote for people that they will take up their positions in Brussels, not in their own capital.
But the right-wing resurgence in Europe has been fueled by frustration over the migrant crisis in the EU, as well as regulations on climate change and other issues that are thought to hit rural and less-educated residents hardest. Economic growth in much of Europe has remained stagnant since the 2008 global recession, further increasing discontent with the status quo.
Right-wing parties now lead Italy and Slovakia and are part of governing coalitions in other countries such as Finland, Sweden and, soon, the Netherlands.
Overall, the right’s strongest support on the continent is among rural rather than urban voters—who express greater comfort with the economic and social changes of globalization. All of this probably sounds very familiar to American voters, where there have been similar divisions between Trump’s Republicans and President Joe Biden’s Democrats.
Migration cost
Trump has embraced the European right, especially Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, whose self-described “illiberal democracy” has made him an icon for populist conservatives who believe in limiting immigration and the rights of the LGBTQ+ community. He has backed multiple European conservative populists in their campaigns for national leadership, and some of Trump’s key advisers maintain ties to the movement across the Atlantic Ocean.
One of those former advisers, Steve Bannon, called the EU elections “a seismic shift” in his podcast on Monday.
“It’s like here in America, it’s what MAGA does,” said Bannon, who used the acronym for Trump’s “Make America Great Again” campaign slogan. “MAGA pulls us further to the right. And I think that is, not only a good thing, it is necessary for the nation and necessary for the world.”
This year, he harshly criticized Biden for the increase in migrants crossing the southern border seeking asylum in the United States. More than 10 million undocumented migrants are reported by Customs and Border Protection (CBP) since Biden set foot in the White House in 2021. Biden’s soft policy on migration has created chaos in the border, which has moved to large cities and already impacts the budgets of local governments, which translates into fewer benefits for American citizens.
Recognizing the relevance of the issue, Biden has turned to the right on immigration by issuing new regulations to close the border if crossings are too numerous. Measures that Republicans describe as insufficient and allow entry for 2,500 undocumented immigrants daily in search of “asylum.”
Trump’s strongest support is among older voters, in contrast to European conservatives, who experts say do better among younger voters. And in the American two-party system, the current elections amount to a clash of wills with the voters, who will have to choose between Biden or Trump.
What impact would a Trump victory have?
There have been limits to the advances of the right in Europe. Last year, Poland’s conservative government lost power when voters opted for a center-left coalition. The United Kingdom left the EU — a victory for the conservatives — but its conservative Tory party is expected to lose heavily in the next election, even if the opposition Labor Party does not plan to reverse the so-called Brexit.
Even in Hungary, the heart of conservative power in Europe, there has been growing discontent with the current government.
In places where the right has taken power, such as Italy, where Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s party doubled its membership in the EU parliament, there has been no radical break. Meloni has kept her country part of the coalition supporting Ukraine’s fight against Russia. While she has cracked down on the admission of migrants crossing the Mediterranean Sea into her nation, she and the party to which she belongs, Brothers of Italy, have not made any fundamental changes to the country’s political and economic structure. .
Matthias Matthisj, a professor of international political economy at Johns Hopkins University, said Italy could be an example of how populists will govern in Europe.
“They’re going to be stricter about Muslim prayer, and you can drive faster on the highway now,” Matthisj said. “But on the big issues — the budget, foreign policy — the only way these populists can come to power is if they stay in the center.”
That’s a contrast to Trump, who has embraced notable changes to American politics and how the federal government could operate if he wins. Some analysts believe that a Trump victory could give European populists like Meloni permission to move further to the right.
Even after the EU elections, a radical change is unlikely. The European People’s Party (Christian Democrats) of which EU President Ursula von der Leyen belongs has moved to the right to counter the populist wave and remains the largest party in the 720-member body. The center still remains in Europe—it just moved to the right. The next question is whether that will happen in the United States in November.
Source: With information from AP
