On Friday, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to the Belarusian news agency Belta. It has also been confirmed from the Russian side.
Lukashenko himself has said that security and defense issues should be discussed, but primarily “issues of an economic, military and political nature”.
– What they say they will discuss, and what they will discuss, need not be the same thing, says Belarus expert Arve Hansen to TV 2.
Hansen is an adviser to the Norwegian Helsinki Committee, and has done research on Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, among others. He believes Putin wants to put pressure on Lukashenko for wider support in Ukraine.
– It is very strange if they do not discuss the war in Ukraine. It is always high on Putin’s agenda, because his entire political project depends on the war going well, says Hansen.
COMPLICIT: Belarus expert Arve Hansen believes that Lukashenko is an undeniable accomplice in the war. Photo: The Norwegian Helsinki Committee
– Definitely an accomplice
Belarus has been an important supporter of Russia in the war against Ukraine.
On Thursday, however, Lukashenko claimed that Belarus will only join Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine if Belarus is attacked.
– I am ready to fight together with the Russians from Belarusian territory, but only in one case: if at least one soldier from there comes to Belarus to kill my people. If they commit aggression against Belarus, the response will be the most cruel. And the war will have a completely different character, he said in a statement.
Hansen says the statement joins the series of untruths from Lukashenko.
– It is interesting in that the leadership in Minsk has been an active party in the war by making areas available to Russian troops, Belarusian airstrips have been used, and rockets have been sent from Belarusian airports towards Ukraine, says Hansen.
BORDER CONTROL: Belarus shares a border with both Russia and Ukraine. The picture is from the border with Ukraine, in the Brest region. Photo: Natalia Kolesnikova / AFP / NTB
When Russia went to war a year ago, they attacked, among other things, from Belarusian territory, north of Ukraine.
– Belarus is definitely complicit in the war of aggression, says Hansen.
He therefore believes that we cannot trust that Belarus will not join the war militarily.
– It is reminiscent of what Putin said in February 2022, that this was a military exercise and that they should not attack. Exactly what they said they wouldn’t do, they did, says Hansen.
– When they say something, I always start to fear the opposite.
DEPENDENT: Arve Hansen believes Lukashenko is dependent on Putin to stay in power. Photo: Sputnik / AFP / NTB
Lukashenko in splits
If Putin puts pressure on Lukashenko, and asks for more military support in Ukraine, Hansen believes he will face a demanding dilemma.
– Lukashenko has become more and more dependent on Putin, especially after the election in 2020. The question is whether he is safer for Putin or his own people, he says.
He believes that Lukashenko is between the choice of supporting Putin more, and at the same time risking popular uprising or military rebellion, or that Putin risks losing the war, which could mean the hook on the door for Lukashenko’s regime.
However, Hansen doubts that anything particularly concrete and clarifying will come out of Friday’s meeting.
– It is probably not certain that they will say so much afterwards. At the same time, it is what they do that is important to follow, and not what they say, he says.
– Too much cost
NUPI researcher and Russia expert Jakub Godzimirksi believes that it is obvious that Lukashenko is now under more pressure from Putin.
– At the same time, it seems that Lukashenko does not want to be part of the war, because he is afraid that it will not go the way they want. The costs for him will then be much greater than those he has already incurred, says Godzimirski to TV 2.
Although Belarus has been helpful to Russia, he believes that sending Belarusian boys into the war is too great a cost for Lukashenko, who has the protests of 2020 fresh in his mind.
– Lukashenko is a trickster who is good at deciphering which way the wind is blowing, and it is not blowing in the direction of great success for Russia for the time being, says Godzimirksi.
– There are many indications that he is trying to maneuver his way out of the war, or at least limit what he has to deliver to Putin.
BIG COSTS: NUPI researcher Jakub Godzimirski believes the costs will be too great for Lukashenko if he gets more involved in the war, and loses. Photo: Sveinung Kyte / TV 2
