Why Vladimir Putin needs the Wagner mercenaries

Analyse

Yevgeny Prigozhin is the Russian president’s life insurance policy against his own generals. For how much longer?

Philipp Löpfe / watson.ch

Yevgeny Prigozhin slandered Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov. The head of the Wagner troop insults the Russian army, and is even said to have offered the Ukrainian secret service to betray Russian positions in return for a retreat from Bakhmut. At least that’s what the “Washington Post“.

It would actually be expected that Prigozhin would have to be put against the wall for treason and that his mercenary troupe would have to be disbanded. But “Putin’s cook” can apparently do anything. Andrei soldatov and Irina Borogan explain why this is so in the magazine “Foreign Affairs“.

The four centers of power in Russia

There are currently four centers of power in Russia. First, the military intelligence agency, the GRU. Second, the military itself. Third, the FSB, the civilian counterpart of the GRU, and fourth, Putin. These four power blocs are by no means working together harmoniously. Above all, the generals and the regular army form a kind of state within a state.

“The army has a tradition of doing everything possible to ensure that the outside world learns as little as possible about it,” writesSoltov and Borogan. “This means that the usual government and public controls over the army – be it through parliament, the judiciary or the media – simply do not exist in Russia.”

After taking office, Putin tried to get a grip on this state within a state. So he installed an outsider, his former KGB pal Sergei Ivanov, as defense minister. He tried to push through a comprehensive reform of the military – and failed. In 2007, Putin had to fire him.

Shoigu, the current defense minister, does not come from the ranks of the army either. His standing with the generals is therefore manageable. In addition, their power increases with the duration of the war. “Putin knows that the longer the war lasts, the more difficult it will be to control his generals,” Soldierov and Borogan note.

Appearance of the Wagner mercenaries. Their patron saint is the GRU and the Spetsnaz, an elite military unit. Under Shoigu, both received impetus. They were important factors in the conflicts in Syria and Crimea. At first, however, in secret, because officially mercenaries are still banned in Russia.

Despite his uniform, Sergei Shoigu has never had a career in the military.Bild: IMAGO/ITAR-TASS

In 2015, the online portal fontanka.ru reported on Wagner for the first time and also made it public that Dmitry Utkin, a former Spetsnatz commander, was their military leader. Today, Prigozhin advertises his troops with huge posters in Moscow and has them celebrated as heroes on state television.

Mercenary troops have a long tradition

The fact that private mercenaries support the official army is not reserved for the Russians. The Americans also used Blackwater, a private army, in Iraq. However, Wagner’s predecessors go further back. They are from the days of the Soviet Union. Stalin used Russian mercenaries against Franco’s troops in the Spanish Civil War.

“For the GRU, the Russian experiment in the Spanish Civil War became a convenient excuse to justify the Wagner mercenaries in Ukraine,” Soldierov and Borogan write. “The Kremlin bluntly claims it is another fight against fascists.”

At the moment, the Wagner mercenaries are not only active at the front in Bachmut. They also form the counterweight to the autocratic generals. “For Putin, the Wagner squad has become a crucial means of keeping a grip on the military, which he sees as a potential threat to his power,” writesSoltov and Borogan.

At the same time, Prigozhin has become something of a court jester in the Kremlin. That, too, has a tradition in Russia. Peter the Great, whom Putin repeatedly cites as his role model, also made such a fool of himself. His name was Alexander Menshikov and he was the most powerful prince at court at the time, but he was also not a member of the Russian aristocracy. Like Prigozhin, he was blindly devoted to the tsar and was considered brutal and ruthless.

Wagner boss Prigozhin is considered Putin’s man for the rough.Bild: PRIGOZHIN PRESS SERVICE/AP / Uncredited

But Putin is not Peter the Great, and Prigozhin is becoming an increasingly expensive fool. Like Menshikov, the ex-convict is despised by the elite. That’s why he can’t become a political threat to Putin. But should he lose the battle for Bachmut – and that seems quite possible at the moment – then Putin could drop him.

He would then have senselessly sacrificed tens of thousands of human lives and senselessly burned vast stores of ammunition. And Putin’s loyalty to his subordinates is limited.

The mood between Russia and Poland is tense. Poland condemned in the strongest possible terms Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, which violates international law. And apparently never misses an opportunity to show it.