Seven months after the closing of alliances and lists, there are more questions than answers. Will a “cleaner” message emerge as deadlines approach?
For Gustavo Marangoni
04/01/2023 – 7:30 p.m.
We start the year and also a more aggressive style of electoral campaign. With all certainty, the competition for the votes that will culminate in October or November (according to the result of the first round) will be the harshest and most negative since the democratic restoration of 1983.
It doesn’t look elegant to talk about “dirty campaign“, but quite realistic. We see the dimension of the rift grow, not only in the level of disqualifications but also in the concrete actions. Crossed complaints, requests for political trials of all against all, opaque agreements under the table between representatives of Institutions, companies, politicians and intelligence agents stand out among the practices that do not take vacations.On the contrary, in the rest centers of common people, new tactics and strategies are designed for an all-out war between the leaders.
If there are no solutions, there are plenty of culprits. Each defendant denounces a plot against him, presenting himself as a victim of power which, as is known, is always the other. Yesterday’s allies and today’s enemies contribute to muddy the field trusting in the benefits of the quagmire. Strike and counterattack in boxing scenes worthy of the “Rocky” defense immortalized by Sylvester Stallone. Piña goes and pineapple comes, feeding confidence in an agonizing victory for the demolition of the rival, without giving or asking for a truce.
There are those who maintain that all this does not represent anything new and that “broad beans are being cooked all over the world.” But the differential is that, here and now, the only thing that is cooked are broad beans. The little variety on the menu has been causing reactions in some demanding palates.
Politics, before an overwhelmed society
Remember 2021. Of thirty-four million eligible voters on that occasion, only twenty-four million turned out, 71%. And out of that total, more than a million blank or invalid votes were counted. It must be remembered that, in the 2001 elections before the “que se vayan todos” campaign, the level of participation was higher, reaching 75%.
In order to make a proper comparison, it should be added that at that time the blanks and voids were much higher in absolute and relative terms, totaling four million. It is not about comparing both scenarios or projecting future situations based on past events. Such behaviors are often more gimmicky than effective. But it may be useful to reflect on the possible reactions from civil society when she feels overwhelmed, disenchanted, or simply disinterested in the discussions and ways of “those who are in charge.”
The fight between City and Nation for the co-participation marks the beginning of a turbulent 2023.
Will the polarization pay off and the main coalitions will share the majority of the votes as happened in 2015 and 2019? Is the situation perhaps an incentive for the fragmentation of the political offer? It is difficult to predict collective behaviors. On the Monday following the election, those who will boast of having foreseen what happened will emerge in droves. For now, confusion abounds.
“It may be useful to reflect on the possible reactions of civil society when it feels overwhelmed, disenchanted or simply disinterested”
Is a shift towards a “cleaner” political message possible?
Ten months from the first round, eight from the PASO and seven from the closing of alliances and lists, there are more questions than answers. will arise a “cleaner” message as the deadlines approach? Will someone embody the turn to the center with sufficient vigor, containing the toughest in their space with leadership and skill, or will they end up engulfing the moderates?
One final speculation. In the 2015 and 2019 presidential elections, in contexts of antagonism and strong leg, the candidates with possibilities softened their spaces. Perhaps, the dog may have fleas and lice, and together with higher aggressive decibels and unfair maneuvers, the conditions are also generated for those who propose to de-stress the altered states of a society thirsty for the future to prosper.
Politics will have to wait. The economy, against many forecasts, has relaxed somewhat. The consumer price index for November was lower than expected and, although situated in a high inflation regime, expectations are less bad than a few months ago. The exchange front was able to face the mini-run at the end of the year and the debt in pesos continues to be kicked with carrots and sticks. Many wonder how expensive the time saved in this urgent present will be paid for later, but they postpone the unsympathetic responses and continue to speculate. The latest rains encourage expectations of improvements with respect to soybeans and corn, which had been hit hard, and the Treasury and the Central are breathing a little more.
Summer does not propose calm, but if the storms are reduced to the weather, it is counted every week as a small-big victory. In it Red circle are publicly displayed skeptics about the government, but they admit in reserve that they have good profits. If on the fifth floor of the Ministry of Economy and at Balcarce 50 they take positive note of this versatility, from the heart of Kirchnerism they understand it as confirmation of the prophecy of “la Jefa” who, already in December 2020, warned about the possibility that “four living” benefited from the post-pandemic comeback.
Will today’s bread be tomorrow’s hunger in the Frente de Todos? If April is reached with moderately acceptable numbers and the collapse is far from the horizon: will the opposition pigeons benefit? Will new conflicts arise in the ruling party between supporters of “Plan Platita II” versus those who respect the commitments with the Fund? Let’s go slow. Let’s not so anxiously harass a 2023 that is just beginning.
