The executive opens this Wednesday, February 1, a new explosive site, in the midst of a battle for pensions, with the presentation to the Council of Ministers of a bill on immigration which is largely aimed, from right to left.
The day after another day of massive mobilization against the pension reform, the Head of State intends to maintain the tempo of government action and his second five-year term. And, if possible, create a diversion. “Immigration remains a major subject of concern for the French”outlines a framework of the majority.
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“Firmness and humanity”
The text provides for a series of measures to facilitate expulsions, especially of foreigners “delinquents”a reform of the right to asylum and an integration component, in particular the regularization of undocumented workers in “jobs in tension” (catering, building, etc.) where employers are struggling to hire.
“It takes firmness and humanity […] We can’t accommodate everyone.”summarized Emmanuel Macron in December in ” the Parisian “while calling for “integrate faster and better” those who are granted asylum.
Immigration: in the trap of the OQTFs
The bill is carried by the Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin, for its security component, and that of Labour, Olivier Dussopt, for the more economic and social part. Both will be present at the report of the Council of Ministers, at the end of the morning, alongside government spokesperson Olivier Véran.
“A radically unbalanced text”
Intended to seduce both the Republican right, which is increasingly radical on the subject, and the left, which denounces the reception conditions for foreigners, the text ended up angering everyone… and could need to trigger the constitutional weapon of 49.3, which allows its adoption without a vote.
The majority itself appears divided, between supporters of the right wing, ready to harden it further if necessary, and elected representatives from the left, who see red lines in it.
“We are not delinquents”: demonstration in Paris against the immigration bill
“It’s a radically unbalanced text since it goes very far to the left, and very far to the right”concedes a Renaissance deputy. “It will also make it possible to take public opinion to witness what should be done”he wants to believe.
The text comes the day after a double observation: a 31% increase in asylum applications (137,000) in 2022 and 15% in expulsions (15,400), these nevertheless remaining one third lower than those of 2019, before the Covid. “Part of our economy now runs on immigration”also underlines the Minister of the Budget Gabriel Attal.
New talks with LR
But the equation promises to be very complicated for the executive, in the absence of an absolute majority, when it is already scrapping on pensions. The Republicans, who could vote for the pension reform, will be very reluctant to repeat the offense on immigration, one of their markers.
“We cannot ask to vote for pensions and after immigration, we might as well join the majority”, launches the LR deputy of Pas-de-Calais Pierre-Henri Dumont. The right considers the deportation measures insufficient. It is above all a headwind against the granting of residence permits for “jobs in tension”judging that this will lead to massive regularizations and “open the floodgates of immigration”.
The executive, who intended to catch them in their own trap on one of their flagship subjects, finds himself back to the wall, except to let go of more ballast in their direction. “At the LR, some defend the idea of establishing quotas to limit regularizations. Let’s discuss »launched this weekend the Minister of the Interior.
Migrants, those “undesirables” whose lives matter less
Others in the majority already fear that the regularization part will fall by the wayside. “The LRs ask that it not be in this text”notes a Renaissance deputy.
The text could be partly unraveled in the Senate, where it will first pass in mid-March, then revisited in the National Assembly in May-June. Until then, Gérald Darmanin, himself from the LR, intends to negotiate with each other. “He invests a lot, speaks to elected LR one by one”observes a ministerial adviser.
This text, the 29th on asylum and immigration since 1980, feeds above all the mill of the extreme right in “responding on their ground”, deplores for her part Fanélie Carrey-Conte of the association for aid to migrants La Cimade. The National Rally, unsurprisingly, has already announced that it will not vote for it.
