The hard inflation data for March -7.7%- and the skyrocketing of the blue dollar at the end of April pose a complex economic scenario for the coming months and put the government in trouble just as the electoral campaign is gaining momentum.
In this context of new tensions in the market, with a BCRA that has been losing foreign currency despite the implementation of the “agro dollar”, uncertainty looms and many Argentines wonder what will happen in the coming months with the price of the dollar and inflation.
Within the framework of the unstable economic situation and a prolonged internship in the Frente de Todos that wore down the figure of President Alberto Fernández, the US currency remained consistently an important variable. For example, on April 25, the informal bill marked a feverish peak of $497. Since then, the blue has been on a seesaw that placed it this Friday, May 5, at a price of $459.
Meanwhile, the official dollar It is currently advancing in a slow micro devaluation compared to previous months. He wholesaler the wheel of this Friday ended in $226,25.
Dollar 2023: this is the new market forecast
An interesting and useful perspective on what is to come can be found in the REM survey of the Central Bankwhich concentrates new forecasts on what What will happen to the price of the US ticket? at the end of the year and in 2024. The monetary authority published this Friday the results of the monthly survey it carries out among consultants and analysts from the City. There, experts share their forecasts for the dollar priceinflation and GDP growth.
The financial market agents grouped in the Survey of Market Expectations (REM) estimated that he official wholesale exchange rate will reach the $398.50 per dollar at the end of December of 2023. This is a strong upside from the previous REM forecast of $346.23. This indicates that the market worsened its expectations after the currency run at the end of April.
Evolution of REM forecasts. Price of the wholesale dollar projected for the end of December 2023.
In parallel, from the survey it appears that analysts foresee a price of the dollar of $862,50 for December 2024. Here an intensification of the post-electoral devaluation expectation is noted, given that in the previous REM the expected figure was $693.61.
As noted above, the wholesale dollar closed this Friday at $226.25, so analysts consider that it has $172.25 left to climb until the end of the year.
Prices: what will happen to inflation
The REM participants also anticipated that the inflation of April 2023 amounted to 7,5%.
In addition, market analysts projected that retail inflation will accumulate during 2023 a 126,4%an increase compared to 110% that they had estimated last month. Likewise, the inflation forecast for the year 2024 It is 106%while the forecast for 2025 is 53.5%.
How much will the economy grow, according to the REM
REM analysts forecast by 2023 that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will fall this year by 3.1%. Meanwhile, the economy is expected to contract by 0.2% in 2024.
The Survey of Market Expectations (REM) consists of a systematic monitoring of the main short and medium-term macroeconomic forecasts that are usually made by specialized local and foreign analysts, on the evolution of selected variables of the Argentine economy that are compiled by the Central Bank.
Stopping the economy: City experts forecast that GDP will fall in 2023 and 2024.
The expectations regarding retail prices, the interest rate, the nominal exchange rate, economic activity and the primary result of the non-financial national public sector are surveyed.
The latest report disseminates the results of the survey carried out between April 26 and 28.
The forecasts of 38 participants were considered, including 24 local and international consultants and research centers, and 14 financial entities from Argentina.
Price of the dollar in 2023: this anticipates FocusEconomics
In addition to the REM of the BCRA, another large survey highly regarded in the market is the one published monthly by FocusEconomics, the latest edition of which was released in mid-September.
In this case, some 40 national and foreign economists make their monthly forecasts about what will happen to the dollar in the coming months.
For
surveyed analysts consider a agreed price of the US wholesale ticket for the end of the year of $363, that is, 15.5 pesos (5%) more than what was expected in the previous March report for the same period.
In a context of currency scarcity and political and economic uncertainty, the pressure will be greater on the price of the dollar due to more demand.
Therefore, if this price projection for the wholesale dollar occurs as expected by the end of 2023, the cumulative currency devaluation throughout the year would be 105%. A percentage that would even exceed the 102.8% inflation expected for the same period.
Equally These forecasts are lagging quite a bit behind what is being negotiated today in the operations of the Matba-Rofex futures and options market, where a greater jump in the price of the wholesale dollar is expected by the end of December, since the contract price for that date is $455. In other words, some 92 pesos more than what was indicated in the FocusEconomics consensus.
As reference data, the wholesale exchange rate today is around 218 pesos.
And there in the distance is the Budget 2023 presented by the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa at the end of last year, and which was approved in the National Congress, where an exchange rate of $270 was considered for December.
Economist by economist: what is the highest expected price
Regarding the prices estimated by the national and foreign economists surveyed in the world report for the wholesale dollar for the end of the year, the dispersion of values is increasing and reaches almost 100%because they start from a minimum of $261 to a maximum of $513.
Thus, the higher forecasts for the price for the official exchange rate for the end of December are led by the consultancy Eco Go, with a forecast of $513. Then come C&T Asesores ($469), Econviews ($461) and Aurum Valores, with $450.
The price agreed upon by national and foreign economists for the wholesale dollar for December is $363.
“What we see is that in general the dollar will continue to accompany inflation (we assume that until November), which after the negative surprise in March, will be higher than what we expected a few months ago. This is due to the fact that the increase activates new rounds of increases by companies and professionals who do not want to be left behind,” he told iProfessional Sebastian Menescaldieconomist and associate director of Eco Go.
For his part, Andres Borensteineconomist and associate director of Econviews, completes: “We now have 125% inflation for the whole year. We believe that the exchange rate will touch $460 in December because after the change of government there will be a devaluation, if this management does not do it.”
in it complete Fausto SpotornoOJF economist from Orlando Ferreres, who projects $336 by the end of the year: “This devaluation is equivalent to a monthly rise in the dollar of 6% for the officialwhich is what we thought was going to happen. In other words, the dollar is following inflation, but that may be accelerating now since we estimate that inflation will end up above 120% this year.”
for his part Fernando BaerQuantum economist, with an estimate in FocusEconomics of $377 for the end of the year, adds: “We are seeing inflation of the order of 115%, and the official exchange rate is moving in that line as not to be able in real terms”.
While, Santiago ManoukianEcolatina’s chief economist, with a forecast of $352, maintains: “As there are no margins to continue delaying the exchange rate, given the low amount of reserves, an already very high exchange rate gap and the impact of the drought, the Government is forced to accelerate the movement of the official dollar to calibrate itbring it closer to the movement of prices, to the movement of inflation.
