The fighting in Ukraine has continued through the Orthodox Christmas holiday, despite Russia’s unilateral and highly temporary ceasefire.
The alleged ceasefire was quickly rejected by the Ukrainian side, and has been called both “hypocritical” and “cynical” by the West.
Tom Røseth is head teacher in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College. He says the alleged ceasefire has no meaning, with the exception of missile attacks.
– It is primarily an attempt to put Ukraine in a bad light, and to promote that Putin is considered humane and an orthodox champion.
THE WEAPON: Tom Røseth, head lecturer in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense College, believes the West will eventually give Ukraine a combat vehicle they have been asking for for a long time. Photo: Kristin Grønning / TV 2
Feeling threatened
Røseth refers to the situation on the battlefield, which substantiates that the truce is not real.
– There have been fierce battles in Bakhmut, as we have seen over time, where the Russians have taken new positions and occupied a salt mine.
Although there has been fighting in Bakhmut, one of the most contested areas along the front continues to be around the town of Kreminna, according to British intelligence.
According to the British, the fighting is focused on a wooded area west of the city.
– Russian commanders most likely see the pressure around Kreminna as a threat to the right flank of their Bakhmut sector.
Bakhmut is symbolically important and may also have strategic significance, as a Russian breakthrough here could affect the battle for the Donbas region.
I think the West will give in
This week it became known that the USA, Germany and France will send armored personnel carriers to Ukraine.
Røseth says this is a change and a positive thing seen from Ukrainian eyes.
– It provides an opportunity for armored vehicles with smaller guns on them that can transport infantry quickly along the front line and for offensive operations.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyj has previously asked for heavier tanks, both German Leopard and American Abrams, but has so far been refused.
ARMS AID: The US announced this week that Ukraine will receive 50 Bradley APCs. Photo: Brendan Smialowski / AFP / NTB
– Why doesn’t he get it?
– There are always thresholds for what the West will contribute. Then you cross the thresholds and give more. It depends somewhat on what happens in the war and what happens in Moscow, says Røseth.
However, a number of countries have sent Soviet-made tanks to Ukraine.
– Giving Western tanks is a threshold, because it might provoke Moscow. It is also complicated with logistics, spare parts and supplies of, for example, fuel.
Røseth emphasizes that phasing in western tanks is complicated. Nevertheless, he believes the West will give in.
– I think it will come, but it will probably happen a little later, says Røseth.
Was going live on TV, then a Russian missile crashed
Progress hits Putin
Røseth says that it would be beneficial for Ukraine to get these weapons, as it will provide impact in counter-offensives planned in Kyiv.
– If they had tanks, it would have made a big difference and striking power, which would have moved the border in Ukraine’s favor.
If Ukraine were to succeed with new counter-offensives, such as in Kharkiv and Kherson, Røseth believes that Putin’s handling will be the same as before.
– They have tried to hide what is happening, if it is impossible to hide they may be underreporting the losses. Then we see strong critical voices from military bloggers.
Røseth believes there will be challenges for Moscow if Ukraine continues its progress along the front line
– It leads to increased criticism, especially of the General Staff, but also of Putin himself.
