Analysis by China Understanders – China’s announced peace initiative poses a great threat to the United States

When China’s chief diplomat Wang Yi brought up the possibility of a Chinese peace initiative for Ukraine at the Munich Security Conference last weekend, he looked into skeptical eyes. Unable to coax more than a vague announcement from him, the foreign and security policy community gathered in Munich began to fear that the tight-lipped declaration to mark the first anniversary of the Russian invasion could be nothing more than diplomatic wishy-washy , for which the People’s Republic is known.

However, some of the listeners must have felt vindicated: India and Brazil had announced to Beijing in the past few weeks that they wanted to be part of a peace offensive led by the Communist Party. Beijing itself has long resisted playing such a role.

Nominally neutral, the nomenklatura in China has urged Ukraine and Russia to negotiate with each other and end hostilities. Beijing deliberately overlooked the fact that Ukraine is a country under attack and Russia is an aggressor who is breaking international law.

Xi and Putin trample on human dignity

So it cannot be that an aggressor sits alongside the oppressed on an equal footing and sets conditions for the end of the injustice he has started on an equal footing. Given that Russia has committed crimes against humanity in Ukraine, Beijing’s support for Putin is a slap in the face for Ukrainians. Nevertheless, the communist rulers are also committing genocide against the Uyghur ethnic minority. Xi and Putin are of the same breed when it comes to trampling on the human dignity of others.

The reason for the alliance between the two dictators is their “No Limits” friendship announced in early February 2022. United in hatred of the United States and the democratic world order, the two seek to drive the United States and its allies out of what they consider their zones of influence.

As a result, Beijing has been squaring the circle for a year now. On the one hand, they say that they stand by the UN Charter, which declares the sovereignty of nation states to be an inalienable principle. At the same time, people are acting as if Russia only invaded Ukraine in self-defence, which is again the fault of the Americans, who wanted to spread themselves out in the Ukraine in Moscow’s forecourt.

Global South skeptical of Western engagement

Inseparable from the sovereignty of nations is that they determine their own destiny. The potentates in Moscow and Beijing alike disregard this. By analogy with Putin and Ukraine, Xi Jinping regards the neighboring free and democratic island country of Taiwan as part of the territory of the People’s Republic, even though the People’s Republic has never ruled over the small nation. The people of Taiwan have complete control over how they wish to define their relationship with the People’s Republic.

However, many countries in Asia share Beijing’s view that Taiwan is part of China. The economic pressure that Beijing would exert on the respective countries if it made statements to the contrary is too great. At the same time, a number of countries in Asia and Africa have not subscribed to the democratic, liberal view of the Ukraine war.

Rather, the countries united in NATO had to realize that many nations in the Global South do not support the sanctions against Russia and view the commitment of the former colonial powers to Ukraine from a distance and with a certain skepticism.

Memories of Iraq war not faded

In the global South, therefore, Beijing’s rhetoric blaming Washington for the war may not be questioned as the US continued to supply arms to Ukraine. Of course, Beijing is keeping quiet about its own commitment to Russia: Almost at the same time as Wang Yi’s speech in Munich, the Wall Street Journal reported that drones were being delivered from China to the front in occupied Ukraine. Fears had already been expressed in the past that Beijing could use North Korea, which is an ally of both Beijing and Moscow, to supply the front lines with technology.

The US has reportedly shared intelligence with its allies’ intelligence agencies. There they will look very closely at the findings, because the memory of the Iraq war, which was justified and started with the claim that weapons of mass destruction were stationed in the country, has not completely faded. The reasons for a potential escalation between the USA and its allies on the one hand and the People’s Republic on the other, be it through sanctions or even a military one, must by no means stand on feet of clay.

Danger for the USA: China could pass on the blame for the failure

The audience in the southern hemisphere, from Rio to Delhi, is likely to be the target of China’s peace initiative. Should this plan indeed contain steps that would nevertheless be discarded after a dignified discussion, Beijing could always call out to its allies that it was the USA that stood in the way of a peace agreement. A threat to US President Biden. In doing so, Washington is actually only committed to the UN doctrine of “Responsibility to Protect” (“Responsibility to Protect”), i.e. it does not act belligerently, but reacts to free a nation that is innocently involved in a war from its occupiers.

In this sense, US President Biden’s visit to Kiev can be seen as support for Ukraine. Beijing must now demonstrate that it is genuinely interested in peace, which would automatically mean acknowledging who caused the war. As long as this does not happen, the messages coming out of the People’s Republic will remain contradictory and China’s involvement will be dispensable.