Why does the Russian ruler Putin want to have a talk with his Chinese counterpart, the dictator Xi Jinping, before the New Year? A Kremlin spokesman left unanswered the question of whether it should be a phone call or even a personal conversation.
However, the same person rejected reports that there should be a phone call between Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron these days. It has already been officially announced that US President Joe Biden will not receive any good wishes on New Year’s Day this year. The message is clear: rejection of the free world, red carpet for the People’s Republic.
In a television interview, Putin said the US and Ukraine were still trying to destroy “historic Russia”. By this, Putin means a “holy Russia” that only exists as a mythological entity in his head. This attitude is similar to that of China’s ruler Xi, who dreams of a large, “reunited” China and therefore wants to annex the neighboring island republic of Taiwan. Beijing also occupies territories in Tibet, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. In the mind of the Communist Party, these areas also belong to the Chinese Empire, which the CP sees as a kind of birthright to dominate.
Xi is visibly disappointed with Putin’s course of the war
In the days leading up to Christmas, observers in the free world speculated that Russia was planning another attack on Ukraine from Belarus. These fears were further fueled by a December 27 meeting between Putin and Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko in Saint Petersburg. A statement from the two says that they agree “on many points”.
However, Ukraine was not mentioned in the paper. Russia had also attacked Ukraine from Belarus in February, but this advance was successfully repulsed by the Ukrainian army. Lukashenko is considered a dictator by Putin’s grace. There is no question that he will do what the Kremlin leaders ask of him.
A conversation with China’s rulers before the New Year may serve to avoid renewed tension between the two bosom friends Xi and Putin. It is said that Beijing was surprised by the war of aggression against Ukraine at the end of February, even though Xi and Putin had met at the opening of the Olympic Games a few weeks earlier.
Xi has nevertheless bravely stood by his warmongering friend over the past decade, even as the Chinese leader is visibly disappointed with the course of the war. In September, he summoned Putin to a conversation in which, as it was subsequently said, he had to answer and clear up “questions and concerns” from the Chinese side.
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To date, Beijing has only been able to bring itself to condemn a potential nuclear escalation in Ukraine. This is mainly because the countries of Central Asia, which were occupied by Moscow during the USSR and are now increasingly becoming China’s zone of influence, are reacting coolly to Putin’s war.
Beijing fears that Putin’s conquest could tempt Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, for example, to launch their own nuclear programs in order to arm themselves against future invasions of Moscow. Moscow and Beijing are geopolitical rivals on a number of issues, contrary to what Xi’s and Putin’s declarations of friendship might suggest. Who holds the scepter in Central Asia is one of these points of contention.
Putin’s call could therefore serve to inform Xi in advance about the attack on Ukraine from Belarus and thus not upset the Chinese ruler again. Although Beijing officially takes a neutral position, North Korea and Iran, both partners of China and Russia, supply weapons and drones to the Russian army on the Ukrainian front. North Korea is too poor to manufacture these weapons on its own without the help of its powerful partner China.
The People’s Republic is therefore just as involved in the war in Ukraine, even if it officially portrays it differently, as are its partners in the free and democratic world, who stand by the attacked Ukraine. This showdown could at any moment lead to a war between the United States and the People’s Republic, probably over the island democracy of Taiwan, to a world war.
Putin and Xi need each other right now
The balance of power between Xi and Putin has recently changed. China’s dictator has been weakened by a series of failings, both within the party, in the ad hoc rollback of his beloved zero-Covid policy, and among the people of China, as the pro-democracy demonstrations in November exposed, shouts of “Down with Xi!” and “Down with the KP!” Back in October, a courageous protester in Beijing unveiled a banner calling for Xi’s ouster. The poster was honked by motorists and applauded online before the censors stepped in.
The fate of both countries, Russia and China, lies in the hands of a single man. Both of them do not get the full view of things from their subordinates because they are afraid of punishment and retribution. Both Xi and Putin have isolated themselves in the pandemic and become radicalized in the process.
Her dreams of “holy Russia” and “reunited China” are part of the madness that seems to have come over her in this isolation. What the new year may bring for the world, given the power that both men currently have, is open. Either way, they both need each other, which is forging them even closer together at the moment.
