On Christmas Day, Russian President Vladimir Putin once again came out hard against the West and Ukraine. Putin claimed that Russia was ready to negotiate, but that neither Western nor Ukrainian authorities were interested in listening.
– It is up to them. It is not us who refuse to negotiate, it is them, Putin said during a lengthy interview broadcast on Russian television.
OPPONENT: Vladimir Putin says he wants to negotiate, but does not feel that the West and Ukraine will meet him. Photo: Ramil Sitdikov/Ukraine
Like several other high-ranking Russian leaders, Putin has, among other things, used the last few days to summarize the year that has passed, and with it also the war. Where Putin insists that he primarily wants to “unite the Russian people”, other senior Russian leaders say something quite different.
Professor Sven Holtsmark at the Department of Defense Studies has noticed this. He refers in particular to a long newspaper article written by Russia’s former president, Dmitry Medvedev, which was published in Rossiiskaya Gazetathe same day Putin’s interview was televised.
MEANINGLESS: Sven Holtsmark believes that the various messages from the Russian authorities are meaningless, and must be seen in the context of how Russia acts. Photo: Odd Arne Hartvigsen / TV 2
– I think it was interesting. In the article, he maintains exactly the same thing that Putin said when he started the war on 24 February this year: The goal is to “demilitarize and denazify” Ukraine, Holtsmark tells TV 2.
Threatening nuclear war
Medvedev is currently deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, and was the country’s president from 2008 to 2012. Due to limitations on how long a president can serve at a time, Vladimir Putin was then prime minister. In reality, however, it was Putin who ruled the country during this period as well, and the law on how long a president can serve at a time has since been changed.
THEN: When Medvedev became president in 2008, he presented himself as a liberal voice for a modern Russia. Here from a military exercise in the Barents Sea in 2013, together with then Prime Minister colleague Jens Stoltenberg. Photo: Cornelius Poppe / NTB
Holtsmark believes that the former president’s statements show that Putin’s statements about negotiations are nothing more than empty words:
– Medvedev literally says that Russia must abolish the Ukrainian regime in Kyiv. He confirms that the goal is to bring Ukraine under Russian control, Holtsmark points out.
In the article, Medvedev says that Western authorities want to tear Russia apart, and goes so far as to suggest that such an attempt will end in nuclear war.
– Is the West ready to start a full-scale war against us, including a nuclear war, on Kyiv’s orders?, writes Medvedev.
FULL WAR: Medvedev asks in the article whether the West is ready for a nuclear war. The picture is from January 2022. Photo: Yulia Zyryanova / Sputnik
– Everything completely cool
At the same time that Medvedev is threatening nuclear war, he is also asking for security guarantees from the West. Holtsmark understands very little of that.
– If Russia receives security guarantees, everything is perfectly fine, but no one understands what it entails. You cannot at the same time say that you are going to drive regime change in Kyiv, says the professor.
He reminds us that Russia has already annexed large parts of Ukraine, which suggests that the goal of the Kremlin is something other than guarantees about Russia’s security.
– It is about Russia wanting a different regime in Ukraine.
Holtsmark believes that the many contradictions in Putin and Medvedev’s statements mean that the words coming out of the Kremlin cannot be given any value.
– Purely in terms of content, these Russian messages make no sense whatsoever. Now one must rather look at what the Russians are doing, and how their actions give meaning to Russian statements. It is then that we understand that when Medvedev still refers to what Putin said at the start of the war, namely that the goal is to bring Ukraine under Russian control, then the Russian actions make sense, Holtsmark concludes.
Excludes state of peace
The war has now lasted 306 days, and the Russian authorities express that the “military special operation” will continue with undiminished force into 2023. Professor Holtsmark believes it is difficult to predict how the war will develop further, but says there is one scenario one can rule out:
– I see no possibility that in a year we will have some form of peace between Ukraine and Russia, says Holtsmark.
He does not rule out that the conflict will be stagnant, and that Ukraine will succeed in driving the Russians far back. But it can also go the other way:
– We can imagine that Russia will be able to use the enormous resources they have, but so far have not been able to use, and thus will be able to put Ukraine on the defensive. We can imagine that a new Russian offensive against Kyiv this time will be successful, says the professor.
Basically, Holtsmark believes the outcome of the war will depend on one thing:
– It is actually up to Ukraine’s supporters in the West how this war will develop further.
