Friday April 7, 2023 | 7:36 p.m.
This Friday the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic released a new Survey of Market Expectations (REM). The follow-up shows the main short- and medium-term macroeconomic forecasts that are usually made by specialized, local and foreign people, on the evolution of selected variables of the Argentine economy, such as inflation or the dollar.
The disseminated results belong to a survey carried out between March 29 and 31, 2023. Forecasts from 40 participants were considered, including 26 local and international consultants and research centers and 14 financial entities from Argentina.
In the third survey of the year, analysts estimated monthly inflation of 7% for March 2023 and inflation for the entire year of 110% year-on-year (10.2 pp above the forecast from the previous survey). Those who best predicted this variable in the short term (TOP-10) also expect inflation of 7% for March 2023, and 108.5% year-on-year for the year (5.7 pp higher than the February survey). For February 2023, the median of the estimates of those who participated in the previous REM survey suggested inflation of 6.1% per month, while the data observed in that month turned out to be 6.6% (0.5 percentage points —pp— higher than predicted). In turn, the REM participants revised the forecasts for all periods, placing inflation at 90% yoy for 2024 (8.3 pp higher than the previous REM) and at 54.6% yoy (+0.9 pp ) by the year 2025.
The REM analysts forecast the average nominal official exchange rate of $215 per dollar for April 2023 (6.0% expected monthly variation) and those who most accurately forecast this variable in the short term projected that the official exchange rate average nominal value for the same period is $215.19 per dollar (6.1% monthly variation).
Regarding the Core CPI, analysts projected a monthly variation of 6.8% for March (0.8 pp above the forecast of the previous survey), higher than the forecast of those who best projected this variable for the short term (6 .5% monthly). The REM participants revised upward their core inflation forecasts for 2023, placing it at 109.8% year-on-year (12.3 pp more than the previous REM), and for 2024, at 94.2% year-on-year (6.3 pp above the February survey). For the 2025 annual period, analysts projected core inflation of 51.9% year-on-year (0.7 pp higher than the previous REM).
Those who participate in the REM expect a real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) level for 2023 that is 2.7 points lower than that of 2022 (-2.7 pp lower than what was projected in the previous REM), while the TOP-10 of Those who best predicted economic growth in the past projected, on average, a fall of 3.0% (a downward correction of 2.2 pp compared to the previous REM). For 2024, the REM participants estimate an average annual growth of 0.7% (0.3 pp lower than the February survey).
For April 2023, those who participate in the REM forecast a BADLAR rate for private banks of 72.60%, higher than the average rate registered during the month of March 2023 (70.98%). Those who best predicted the rate in the short term foresee, on average, that it will be located at 72.42% in the month of April 2023.
Regarding the value of exports (FOB), those who participate in the REM estimate an amount, for 2023, of US$74,391 million, higher than the forecast of the members of the TOP-10 who projected the value of exports at US$73. .813 million. Regarding imports (CIF) for the year 2023, the projections for the set of REM participants were located at US$71,195 million, while the members of the TOP-10 estimated them at US$71,313 million. . Thus, the REM participants contemplate, for the year 2023, a year-on-year drop of 15.9% in the value of exports and 12.7% for imports.
Those who participate in the REM estimate for the first quarter of 2023 an unemployment rate of 7.0% of the Economically Active Population (EAP; -0.5 pp compared to the previous REM). For the members of the TOP10, the unemployment rate would have been 6.9% during the first quarter of 2023. In both cases, they foresee a rise in the unemployment rate during the year 2023.
Finally, the projection of the nominal primary fiscal deficit of the National Non-Financial Public Sector (SPNF) made by the participants for 2023 was located at $3,800 billion. Likewise, analysts forecast a primary deficit of $3.100 billion for 2024. The average of the 10 most accurate forecasters over the past year for this variable expects a deficit of $3.439 billion for 2023.
