The publication of alleged US intelligence documents is fueling speculation. Russian military bloggers react with uncertainty.
After alleged US secret documents appeared on the Internet, representatives of the Russian side expressed skepticism. Papers on preparations for a Ukrainian counter-offensive were released online on Thursday, before another batch of documents on Ukraine, China and the Middle East were released on Friday. Here you can read more about it.
Since the first publication, there has been speculation as to what the papers are about and who might have published them. It is not known whether the documents are genuine. However, some obvious fakes have already appeared in Russian channels. While US experts see evidence of Russian disinformation, the Russian side is pointing the other way. Some suspect a deception maneuver.
“Classic disinformation campaign”
For example, Vladimir Rogov, a member of the Russian military administration in partially occupied Zaporizhia in southern Ukraine. The documents show that Ukraine has around 50,000 soldiers in the frontline. “But I think this is a classic disinformation campaign designed to mislead us that they (Ukrainian units) are not ready and we can relax,” he said.
Some of the information in the dossier is certainly true, but it is intended to create the illusion that there is still time before a Ukrainian attack. “The situation at the front says something completely different: the technology is coming and is already ready, the people have been trained on it, the number of soldiers is large enough,” warned Rogov. According to experts, the Zaporizhia region is the most likely direction for a Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Military bloggers skeptical
Some Russian military bloggers also assume that the documents are being deliberately distributed in order to confuse the Russian military command, as reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Blogger Boris Rozhin, for example, points out on his Telegram channel that there have been cases in the past in which secret services have circulated alleged plans to mislead the enemy, as the British did in World War II . However, he also noted that there have been instances of plans actually being lost.
Blogger Vоенкор Котенок Z also expressed doubts. US media would describe the leak as the biggest success of the Russian secret service since the start of the special operation, he writes. In Russia, the attack on Ukraine is called a special operation. But the question is whether the praise from “openly hostile sources” can be trusted, he writes, suggesting it may be part of a larger plan to confuse Russia.
Ukraine: It’s a “secret service game”
Meanwhile, Kiev was not surprised by the process. “It’s an ordinary intelligence game,” wrote the adviser to the President’s office, Mykhailo Podoliak, on Twitter on Saturday and Telegram. The Russian secret services prepared the documents themselves with the aim of sowing doubts and discord among Ukraine’s allies and distracting them from the next stages of the war.
The material is a collection of data from publicly available sources mixed with fabrications and intercepted information, Podoljak wrote. It was stamped with a leak of secret data and published on the internet and social media in hopes of gaining some credibility.
Kremlin spokesman sees USA and NATO as part of the conflict
The ISW continues to write that the reactions show how unsettled the Russian war blogger scene is about a possible upcoming Ukrainian counter-offensive. “Reactions to the documents suggest that Russian milbloggers are increasingly reconsidering the validity of their own assessments and speculations about possible Ukrainian counter-offensives and their ability to predict Ukrainian operations,” the ISW continues.
For the Kremlin, the documents are proof of US involvement in the war. “We have not the slightest doubt that the United States and NATO are directly or indirectly involved in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told CNN.
