The results thrown by the System of Cyclic Indicators, for February and March, reflected the good behavior of the Mexican economy in the first quarter of the year, where even analysts were surprised by the strong start of the year.
According to the information released by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), the Coincident Indicator, which shows the general state of the Mexican economy, completed the year above its long-term trend, after the blow caused by the economic and health crisis due to Covid-19.
In February, the Coincident Indicator was located at a level of 101 points, which meant a monthly increase of 0.09 points, behavior explained by the growth of four of its six components.
Within this indicator, the best advance occurred in the Industrial Activity Indicator, which showed a monthly growth of 0.20 points, followed by the Global Economic Activity Indicator, with 0.13 points.
Meanwhile, the Insured Permanent Workers in the IMSS showed an advance of 0.06 points, while the Income Index for the Supply of Retail Goods and Services grew 0.09 points.
At the other extreme, the Urban Unemployment Rate fell 0.16 monthly points, while Total Imports decreased 0.13 points in February.
dynamism continues
As for the Leading Indicator, which seeks to anticipate the turning points of the Coincident, it returned to be above its long-term trend in March, with a level of 100.1 points. The foregoing represented a growth of 0.12 points with respect to the February data.
In this way, the indicator returned above 100 points since July 2022, when after that month it fell below its long-term trend.
The advance in March was due to the growth in five of its six components, where the increase of 0.15 points in the Business Confidence Indicator stood out, followed by a growth of 0.12 points in the BMV’s Price and Quotation Index.
The Interbank Interest Rate, for its part, advanced 0.09 points, while the Standard & Poor’s Index, 0.04 points, and the Employment Trend in Manufacturing grew 0.02 points.
Only the component that refers to the Exchange Rate between Mexico and the United States decreased by 0.23 points during the month.
The data provided by the Cyclical Indicators System confirmed the strength with which the Mexican economy began 2023. According to the timely estimate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), in the first three months of the year it would have grown 1.1% quarterly.
The estimates of the government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador show that this year the GDP will expand at an annual rate of 3%; while some institutions maintain projections below 2 percent.
