The decision announced by the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ) (pro-government) on January 26 to ratify the political disqualification of María Corina Machado triggered a wave of international reactions questioning the competitiveness of the presidential election, while forcing the government of United States to resume sanctions against the government of Nicolás Maduro and threaten to eliminate the very broad licenses granted at the end of last year if the Venezuelan regime does not adhere to the commitments on political and electoral guarantees signed.
Sanctions resume in April
Through the account in of the opposition to participate properly and release political prisoners. They have until April. They have until April…”
However, on January 30, the State Department increased the claim. Through a press release, it is indicated that Maduro’s actions “are inconsistent with the agreements signed in Barbados last October by representatives of Nicolás Maduro and the Unitary Platform.”
The statement states: “In support of the Barbados Agreement, the United States issued General License 44, which provides relief to Venezuela’s oil and gas sector. In the absence of progress between Maduro and his representatives and the opposition Unitary Platform, particularly regarding allowing all presidential candidates to compete in this year’s elections, the United States will not renew the license when it expires on April 18, 2024. .
On the other hand, it is indicated that the United States revoked General License 43, which authorized transactions related to MINERVEN, the Venezuelan state gold mining company. US persons will have fourteen days to cancel any transaction that was previously authorized by that license.
It is further noted that the Barbados electoral roadmap agreement remains the most viable mechanism to resolve Venezuela’s long-standing political, economic and humanitarian crisis and achieve competitive and inclusive elections in Venezuela, but that will require Maduro and his representatives respect the principles of the roadmap and guarantee that opposition political actors have the right to freely choose their candidates for the 2024 presidential elections.
Before this statement, Republican Senator (Florida) Marco Rubio questioned the Biden administration for its policy of approaching Chavismo. “When will those in charge of the US decline within the administration realize that Maduro had no intention of abiding by the Barbados agreement and will they finally decide to reimpose sanctions against the narco-regime?”
Decision that is not surprising
According to the environmental analysis that the financial holding company JP Morgan distributed among its clients, the TSJ’s decision on Machado “is not surprising.” “Maduro authorities appeared to have little incentive to allow Machado to run, since he would represent a potent electoral threat to Maduro.”
In the analysis prepared by Latin American specialists Katherine Marney, Gorka Lalaguna and Ben Ramsey, it is argued that “it is interesting the emphasis placed by the United States and opposition figures on the defective process to reach the decision on the disqualification of Machado, in “rather than a ban itself (…) It could suggest that the Biden administration is more focused on the conditions and process under which elections are held, rather than on the participation of specific candidates.”
The analysis suggests that “as we weigh its next steps regarding sanctions relief, the United States can also look ahead to advance other points of the Barbados agreement, such as inviting international election observer missions, updating records elections and set a date for the elections in 2024. Machado’s position in the future and the ability of the Unitary Platform to eventually reach a consensus on a replacement candidate could also influence the United States’ view of future progress.
Even so, they consider that “while recent events certainly pose a challenge to the arguments in favor of an extension of oil and gas sanctions relief, the United States may still prefer to refrain from taking definitive preventive measures in the oil sector until that a greater part of the process is developed.”
However, oil sector analysts also agree that the Biden administration is unlikely to eliminate licenses for the oil sector.
According to Francisco Monaldi, professor of energy economics at Rice University, “even if they do not renew the general license, it seems unlikely to me that they will suspend the licenses/comfort letters to (the oil companies) Chevron, Repsol, Maurel & Prom and Shell/Trinidad.”
However, he warns that in this scenario “the cost for PDVSA would be important” because they would have to increase discounts on the sale of crude oil again to sell them in alternative markets, significantly increasing collection difficulties.
Decision taken
The ultimatum through
Previously, Jorge Rodríguez, president of the National Assembly (government) and head of Maduro’s negotiating group, stated that “nothing we agree on can go against what is established in the Constitution, we told the same thing to the delegation.” of the United States with whom we have held meetings since May 2023. There are two things that we will never do: go outside the constitutional channel, nor combine or pressure public power. It is not that the Barbados table replaces the TSJ, that would be outrageous, a contradiction, this was a mechanism that was intercepted, fulfilled its role, allowed Venezuelans to resort to the court that has already fulfilled its mission.
They keep Barbados
Despite the decision of the TSJ and the position of the US and other countries in the region, the Maduro government and the representatives of the Unitary Platform will maintain the negotiation process around the Barbados agreements.
Both delegations, at the request of the facilitators of the Kingdom of Norway, agreed to form the “Monitoring and Verification Commission of the agreements” that is responsible for certifying whether the parties adhere to the commitments signed in October 2023.
“There is no choice without me”
Despite the TSJ’s decision, Machado insists that he will be able to register his candidacy to defeat Maduro.
“They are making a mockery of the Barbados agreement and everyone who was part of this agreement. With the infinite cynicism that they violate the agreement and try to blame the other parties because they are the ones who do it,” says the candidate.
“When they announced the irritating and obscene supposed disqualification against me, I said that it was a useless disqualification, but I was wrong, because that action of the regime became a great lever that aroused the rage of a country and channeled it all, in facing the result of the primary on October 22. And the same is happening with the TSJ decision. On January 26 they declared the end of this tyranny, because the people are clear and are not going to let their mandate of October 22 be taken away from them.”
According to Machado “it is obvious that they are going to do everything to try to prevent my candidacy. We said it before the primaries and we repeat it today: Nicolás Maduro is not going to choose the people’s candidate, because the people have already chosen who his candidate is (…) About the so-and-so disqualification and the so-and-so sentencing. We took away an excuse, we gave them the opportunity to keep his word in the Barbados agreement. That’s what we did. Once again they fail to fulfill the commitments made, once again they violate what was agreed, they violated the procedures, they have invented documents and issued a decision that cannot be called a ruling, it is not even an arbitrary decision. This is called judicial delinquency and we have to call things by their name.”
@Puzkas
