According to official interim results, Borisov’s pro-Western centre-right alliance GERB-SDS received around 26.5 percent on election Sunday. The equally pro-Western liberal-conservative bloc PP-DB led by the other ex-prime minister, Kiril Petkov, gained 24.9 percent and was second.
According to the information, six parties have cleared the four percent hurdle for entering parliament. Among them is again the pro-Russian and nationalist Vazrashdane (Rebirth). With around 14.4 percent of the votes for the time being, it is likely to come off as the third strongest political force in elections in Bulgaria for the first time.
Parties in the electoral cycle
In the first forecasts, the order of the two leading political camps was reversed. Now the election result may have solidified the stalemate rather than breaking it. Because the starting position is now the same as in the previous parliamentary elections: With the exception of the Turkish party, none of the other factions want to form a coalition with Borissov, the allegations against him were too persistent. In 2020, months of anti-corruption protests shook Borisov’s government at the time. By then, Borissov had ruled the country for almost a decade.
Preview: sixth election in Bulgaria?
ORF correspondent Ernst Gelegs reports from Sofia, the capital of Bulgaria. He talks about the neck-and-neck race after the election and says whether a sixth general election is imminent.
Since then, all elections have resulted in fragmented parliaments. President Rumen Radev had successively tasked GERB, PP and the socialist BSP with forming a government. But neither party was able to do so, the distrust was simply too great. And it is precisely Petkov’s pro-European PP that has taken up the fight against corruption and ruled out cooperation.
Decisions on hold
However, a stable government is needed. Accession to the euro zone, which is already planned for next year, could be postponed due to a lack of votes in parliament. According to the interim government, parliament was unable to pass necessary reforms, for example on money laundering. There is also no continuous line in the fight against the rising cost of living, and the efficient implementation of the EU post-pandemic recovery plan could be hampered.
In addition, Bulgaria’s position in the Ukraine war is an ongoing issue. Borissov’s camp and PP-DB agree on supporting Ukraine, both also support arms deliveries. The majority of the population also adheres to the pro-Western orientation, as the election showed again. But there is also a clearly anti-Western narrative in Bulgaria, with the pro-Russian Rebirth Party campaigning against arms deliveries to Ukraine and the introduction of the euro. She earned a whopping plus in the election.
course for a new choice
Between them is the pro-Russian President Rumen Radev, who has been in charge since the beginning of the government vacuum. He has been setting up transitional governments since 2021, and a transitional cabinet is still running the official business. Radew has ensured continuity in recent years and is benefiting from the political instability. But Radew also brings unrest to the Ukraine discourse. He declared that Bulgaria would not supply arms as long as the interim cabinet he had installed was in power. Everything else is “warmongering”.
“Bulgaria is threatened with a return to the Russian sphere of influence,” political scientist Deyan Kyuranov warned in a radio interview in Sofia on Monday. He called on both pro-Western camps to “statesmanlike thinking” and “a good compromise”.
So there are plenty of reasons why Bulgaria would soon need a stable government that would once again be able to take political decisions in a democratically legitimized manner. But the closer GERB and PP are in the result, the more difficult it is to form a cabinet. A minority government would be possible, but unlikely. A realistic way out would be a new election in autumn, when local elections are due anyway. It would be the sixth in two years.
