Weapon systems made in Germany earn a lot of praise from the Ukrainian armed forces. But there is a lack of ammunition. And it’s expensive – like the Iris-T SLM anti-aircraft missiles.
With a promotional video of the Ukrainian Air Force on YouTube from the beginning of May, Yuri Ihnat obviously wants to spread positive news: The spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force announces that the German air defense system Iris-T SLM has so far achieved 60 successful launches in 60 Russian missile attacks – so all targets met. This cannot be verified independently.
In the Internet video, a Ukrainian soldier standing in front of the German Iris-T SLM describes how he and his comrades can detect approaching Russian missiles or drones on the radar and “share this information with neighboring anti-aircraft missile complexes, for example.”
All of this is “pretty impressive”. The Ukrainian army does not allow independent reporters to go near the modern Western air defense systems that are now operating in Ukraine. Their locations are considered top secret. The attacker Russia should not be able to locate them.
Two out of four modern IRIS-T SLM in use
In April, Germany delivered the second IRIS-T system to Ukraine. This emerges from the “List of military support services” updated by the German Ministry of Defense at the end of April. A total of four Iris-T SLM are to be delivered from Germany.
According to industry information, it is the most modern anti-aircraft system made in Germany. The manufacturer Diehl Defense from the southern German town of Überlingen on Lake Constance also produces an associated Iris-T guided missile.
Cost of this “guided missile”: 616,681 US dollars (564,608 euros). At least that’s what the international Stockholm peace institute SIPRI estimates. The Iris-T system itself will cost 150 million US dollars (137.3 million euros), says André Frank from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IFW) in a DW interview.
The economist is part of a research group that financially calculates international support for Ukraine every few months.
Rocket with a range of 250 kilometers
It is a calculation with many unknowns. Exactly when which weapons and ammunition will be delivered to Ukraine is kept secret by Kiev and the coalition of the 54 states supporting the Ukraine contact group, led by the USA.
Britain has meanwhile delivered so-called “Storm Shadow” missiles, which are being manufactured by a British-French consortium. British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace confirmed this in a speech in the House of Commons.
It is a milestone in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. Because with a range of 250 kilometers, shot down by planes, the Ukrainian air force can reach the Russian supply hubs in Crimea.
Gradually, apparently, new shipments of weapons promised by the supporter nations are arriving in Ukraine. This is one of the reasons why the long-awaited counter-offensive has been delayed, Ukraine and Russia expert Nico Lange told DW.
In addition, unusually long-lasting rains at the beginning of May extended the so-called mud season in southern and eastern Ukraine. Twice a year, rain in autumn and snowmelt in spring make the country’s typical black soil impassable, especially for tanks and armored vehicles weighing several tons. But for a few days it has been getting warmer and the ground is drying. This is reported by former US soldier and meteorologist David Helms.
Counteroffensive not like in the war movie
Nico Lange tells DW that the spring offensive that has been announced by Ukrainian President Zelensky for months will not go like in a war film. “This counter-offensive is not a rush from the Ukrainian side saying, ‘Every man on horseback and now let’s run against the Russian lines’.”
He expects a “cautious, systematic, slow approach,” said Lange, who also works for the Munich Security Conference. “It’s going to be operations that build on top of each other, a series of operations step by step.”
He assumes “that it will take a long time”. Lange remembers the liberation of the city of Cherson on the south-western part of the Dnieper River last year. It lasted from August to November, three months for this area alone. The Ukrainian army will try to take advantage of the shorter distances within the country. He initially expects attacks to test the Russian defenses at individual points along the front.
The states supporting Ukraine would have to prepare for a longer operation. This means that Ukraine is also dependent on “long-term systematic support”. Ukraine needs a steady stream of ammunition, says Lange.
Defense industry: ammunition capacities only after ordering
In mid-April, the Council of the European Union released one billion euros for ammunition purchases. The money comes from the so-called European Peace Facility (EPF), a budget of the EU’s foreign and security policy. Without clear orders, the armaments industry would not expand its capacities, an industry expert told DW who asked not to be named.
Ukraine expert Nico Lange criticizes the Europeans’ Ukraine policy as too slow. EU countries would have had a chance “to be on an equal footing with the United States on this issue, which they have claimed for many years, but they missed the opportunity in this case.”
At the same time, he heard politicians in Europe worrying that American support for Ukraine could wane after the US presidential elections – especially if Donald Trump were to move back into the White House. The Russian attacker Vladimir Putin is also speculating on this.
“If you worry, that’s not enough,” said Lange. Europe must “boost industrial production in Europe” – especially for ammunition. Because: A quick end to this war is not to be expected.
Apparently, the military in Kiev are relying all the more on the news of success: Germany, the Netherlands and the USA have delivered three Patriot defense systems to Ukraine.
In May, the Ukrainian Defense Minister, Oleksiy Resnikov, reported the spectacular launch of a new Russian hypersonic missile, the Kh-47 Kinzhal, which was previously considered almost impervious to Western systems. The Pentagon spokesman, Brigadier General Pat Ryder, also confirmed the downing by a Patriot system. However, he did not want to say which of the three Patriot plants in Ukraine the Kinzhal hit.
Mitarbeit: Mykola Berdnyk
Author: Frank Hofmann
