Seven months from primary election (STEP) a new poll gave the opposition coalition Together for Change an advantage of almost 10 points on the Frente de Todos but surprised by revealing the preferences for an eventual ballot, where the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massawould be the only pro-government party that could embarrass the main opponents.
The consultant Zuban Córdoba y Asociados published the second part of the survey that it carried out between December 17 and 21, 2022 on 1,300 respondents over the age of 16, in which it measured three dimensions: the intention to vote for the internal of Together for Changethe different scenarios for STEP at the national level and the possible “hand in hand” in a second round.
Regarding the PASO and the intention to vote grouped by parties, the study elaborated two scenarios, one with a wide range of candidates that included the option of “federal Peronism” and another without that space and with a smaller menu. In both Together for Change had a voting intention of 41% against 32% in favor of the Frente de Todos, while the libertarians/liberals represented by the economists Javier Milei and José Luis Espert ranked third with 12%.
In this dimension of the survey, the marked electoral fragmentation stands out, in which none of the pre-candidates individually exceeds 23% of voting intention. However, the Buenos Aires head of government, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, prevails in all scenarios and only Massa approaches him with the intention of voting. The referent of the PRO, in addition, comfortably leads the preferences in an internal opposition.
Elections: how would Larreta, Macri and Bullrich be in a Juntos por el Cambio internship?
The Zuban Córdoba survey measured the Together for Change pre-candidates who could compete against each other in the PASO of August, in three different dimensions: one on all those surveyed, another only on those who affirmed that they will vote for the opposition alliance this year and the third on answered only by those who voted for former President Mauricio Macri in 2019.
In the first scenario, Rodríguez Larreta took a wide advantage with a voting intention of 20.5%followed by the president of the PRO, Patricia Bullrich with 11.8%. The ex-president Mauricio Macri appeared in third place with 9.7% and behind him the deputy María Eugenia Vidal, with 8.5%.
Larreta leads the rest of his competitors in the Juntos por el Cambio internship, according to the survey by Zuban Córdoba
The UCR is at a disadvantage against PRO, according to this survey, where Gerardo Morales reaped just 5.8% Y Facundo Manes 4.4%. Behind them was Ricardo López, a benchmark for the liberal wing of Together for Change, with 1.2%.
Rodríguez Larreta also appears as a clear favorite among voters who have already decided to support Together for Change. The head of government had 31.8% in this dimension of the survey and leaves Bullrich far behind with 19.7% and Macri with 18.3%. Vidal gets 13.5%; Morales 3.2%; Manes 2.6% and López Murphy 1.1%.
On these days Macri stretches the suspense about whether or not he will be a candidate and maintains a fairly hermetic negotiation with Rodríguez Larreta. In this context, the Zuban Córdoba survey does not give a good prognosis for the former president, given that among those people who voted for him in 2019, 39.1% opted for Larreta20% for Bullrich and only 17% said they would elect the former president again if he went to PASO.
The ballot: problems for Kirchnerism and surprise for Massa and the opposition
One of the most notable sections of the Zuban Córdoba survey (which was carried out using the home modality, more precise than the online questionnaire) is the measurement that he carried out on 9 different scenarios for a possible ballot. “If the presidential elections were defined in the second round between the following candidates, who would you vote for?” Was the trigger question.
In almost all the scenarios, the opposition candidates prevailed over the ruling party, but only in those where Massa appears there is a smaller advantagewith the addition that the percentage of undecided (logically large in all cases due to the time remaining until the elections) is drastically reduced.
When confronting Rodríguez Larreta against Massa, the head of government obtained 39.8% and the Minister of Economy 34.2%, while 25.9% chose the “don’t know” option, which poses a very open result. The fight would be even tighter, according to this survey, if the ballot was with Patricia Bullrich: the PRO holder obtained 36.3% and the official leader 35.4%with 28.3% undecided.
Massa emerged from the poll as the most consolidated figure of the Frente de Todos
On the other hand, the fight would be much more favorable for any of the referents of Together for Change in a heads-up with leaders of hard Kirchnerism such as the Minister of the Interior, Eduardo “Wado” de Pedrovery close to Vice President Cristina Kirchner, or the Buenos Aires Governor Axel Kicillof.
Larreta obtained 41.9% against De Pedro, who barely reaped 17%, while Bullrich showed 37.2% against 18.8% of the Minister of the Interior. In both cases the percentage of undecideds was well over 40%.
On stage with Kicillofthe intention to vote for the ruling party improves but does not reach the numbers exhibited by Massa. The Buenos Aires head of government got 42.1% and the Buenos Aires president 28%, while Bullrich got 37.2% against 29.8% for the governor.
What would happen to Milei in a second round?
The only scenario in the survey on a possible balloting that gave the Frente de Todos the winner -although by a tight advantage- was that of Massa against Milei, where the economy minister obtained 36.9% and the libertarian 32.3%, with 30.8% undefined.
According to this poll, Milei would also lose if she entered the ballot against Together for Change. With Rodríguez Larreta, the economist obtained 24.4% and the head of government 34.5%, with a high percentage of undecided of 41.1%.
Meanwhile, the familiarity that has been noted in recent months between the Bullrich profile and Milei’s was reflected in the survey on a possible ballot between the two: the former Minister of Security 28.4% and took a slight advantage over 25.3% Libertarianwhile the indefinite ones climbed to 46.3%.
Kirchnerism appears at a marked disadvantage in the face of a possible ballot against any opponent
The PASO, candidate by candidate
The position of Rodríguez Larreta inside and outside the internal opposition, as well as the Massa’s surprise as the most competitive figure of the Frente de Todos can also be observed in the two scenarios that Zuban Córdoba measured for the STEP nationally.
In the first scenario, where those consulted were offered a wide range of options that included “federal Peronism” -already announced by the governor of Córdoba, Juan Schiaretti, and Juan Manuel Urtubey- and different figures from the ruling party, the breakdown according to the individual voting intention showed the Head of Government with a voting intention of 17% followed by the Minister of Economy with 15%.
Behind them two stood Miley with 12.7% and a surprise advantage over Bullrich, who obtained 10.8%. Much further back they appear Kicillof with 7.9%; Macri with 5%; Vidal with 4.4% and the president Alberto Fernández with 3.5%. They are also listed in the table Daniel Scioli with 3.3%followed by Schiaretti with 2.8% and Morales with 2.6%.
Meanwhile, in the second scenario Rodríguez Larreta had a voting intention of 22.1% and Massa followed on his heels with 21%. Here who appeared third was Bullrich with 14.1%, followed by Milei with 12.6% and Kicillof with 7.9%.
In the evaluation of the survey, the consultant Zuban Córdoba highlighted that Rodríguez Larreta and Massa “appear as the most consolidated figures on both sides of the crack”, but also highlighted that “in all scenarios there is a significant percentage of undecided” and that “this reinforces the idea that it will be the moderate voter who ends up defining the electionespecially if it reaches a second round”.
