The campaign for national elections begins to take shape and the announcement of the vice president Cristina Kirchner The fact that she will not be a “candidate for anything” is a central factor for the strategy of the ruling party and the opposition. However, a recent survey pointed out that around 60% of voters do not trust that definition and that it did not have a great impact on the intention to vote.
Cristina Kirchner made that decision public immediately after the Federal Oral Court 2 sentenced to 6 years in prison and perpetual disqualification to hold public office, in a fiery speech that surprised locals and strangers. Little bit later he relativized that position noting that it was not a “resignation” but that there is a “ban” on it.
In this context and given the imminence of an electoral campaign that, in principle, would not have her as a candidate, the consultant D’Alessio IROL Berensztein prepared a special report to measure the impact of that decision and 61% of those surveyed believe that Cristina Kirchner “will be susceptible to change in the face of an ‘operative outcry'” for her to appear. Only 26% considered that “it will remain firm” in its determination.
This is a piece of information that may be relevant for the electoral assembly of the front of all and also of Together for Changebecause this disbelief in the vice president’s announcement indicates that until the last moment there will be expectation about whether or not it will go on any ballot. The deadline to formalize the candidacies is June 24.
On the way to the elections: how did the “resignation” of Cristina Kirchner impact?
The D’Alessio IROL study was carried out in December 2022 online and based on the responses of 600 respondents, over the age of 18 from across the country. Although the universe of cases is small, the results serve as a first indicator on the impact of the decision announced by the vice president.
The decision influence that Cristina Kirchner anticipated in the intention to vote, according to this study, it was low. Although it was expected that it would not have a great impact among the electorate that favors Together for Change or Javier Milei’s libertarians, the surprise is that neither did it alter the perception of the voters of the Frente de Todos too much ahead of the elections.
60% of those surveyed believe that their vote is not affected by CFK’s decision. Source: D’Alessio IROL Berensztein
“Would what you plan to vote change if Cristina Kirchner does not present herself as a candidate?” Was the question that served as the trigger for the survey. In the general measurement, 60% answered “no, because they were not thinking of voting for her” and only 10% said “yes, because they only voted for the Frente de Todos for her.”. Meanwhile, 19% said they support the ruling party “even if Cristina is not there.”
Leaving aside the 9% who declared themselves indifferent and the 2% who did not respond, those figures may be a bad news for those who bet on an “operative outcry” for Cristina Kirchner, because they suggest that the vice president lost weight among the pro-government electorate or among those who have decided to vote against the opposition options.
This is reinforced in the chapter of the study that asks the same question but divides the respondents according to what they said they had voted in the 2021 legislative elections. Among those who identified with the Frente de Todos, 51% indicated that they support the pro-government alliance “even if Cristina is not there” and 26% said they would change their vote if the vice president is not on the ballot.
A more competitive Peronism without Cristina?: this is what the voters of the ruling party think
Another interesting aspect of the study was the measurement of the impact it could have on Peronism the absence of Cristina Kirchner, according to the vision of those surveyed. Two dimensions were incorporated there: the level of competitiveness of that political space and the possibility of the emergence new leaders with convening power.
The 52% of respondents responded that Peronism will stay “the same”that is, it will not change much if the vice president upholds her decision not to be a candidate, while the 28% considered that it will be “less competitive” and only 17% said they will become “more competitive”, with 3% not responding.
In the breakdown by political spaces, the issue of competitiveness polarizes the voters of the Front of All in 2021: 45% thought that Peronism would remain “the same” and 41% said that it would be “less competitive”. Only 12% said they believe it will be “more competitive”.
A large part of those surveyed see it as “unlikely” that more competitive figures emerge in Peronism. Source: D’Alessio IROL Berensztein
Secondly, When asked if this situation could lead to the emergence of “more competitive figures in Peronism”, 40% considered it “unlikely” and 42% believed so: 29% said “probably” and 13% answered that “surely” leaders appear who give more power to Peronism. 15% thought that “definitely” that will not happen.
among whom they voted for the Frente de Todos in 2021 The survey indicated that there is considerable optimism regarding the possibility that more competitive figures in Peronism will emerge if Cristina Kirchner does not play in the elections: the 53% said “surely” or “probably” that situation occurs, while only the 36% considered it “unlikely” and 9% ruled it out completely.
Why does Cristina Kirchner not want to be a candidate?
This was one of the last questions in the D’Alessio IROL Berensztein survey and the answers from those consulted seem eloquent about the pre electoral climate and the perception of voters regarding the competition for the Presidency of the Nation that will take place on October 22.
48% of those surveyed believe that Cristina Kirchner announced that she will not be a candidate “because she was going to lose anyway”while 14% considered that the leader expressed herself in that sense because “it upsets her to have been sentenced.”
While, 8% believes that behind that statement by the vice president is the intention to “go to jail and later return to power like Lula”in a striking comparison with the situation experienced by the president of Brazil, who began his third term on January 1 after spending 19 months in prison between 2018 and 2019.
The 7% of respondents only responded that Cristina Kirchner’s decision “is a political strategy” and 6% attributed it to the intention of “Do not harm the Front of All”. This was something that she herself said to justify her decision not to stand in the elections: “I am not going to submit to the political force that gave me the honor of being president twice and vice president once to be mistreated during the electoral period with a condemned candidate”.
On the other hand, the idea that the vice president intends to go to jail to return to power later also has a curious link with her definitions after the conviction: “She could order her henchmen on the Supreme Court to put me in prey”, was the phrase with which he addressed the CEO of Grupo Clarín, Héctor Magnetto, with his first and last name.
