The stage of thirds that began to take shape in view of the presidential election it increased the risk for the ruling party of being third and out of a ballot. The direct beneficiary in that case would be the libertarian Javier Miley and according to a recent survey this could become a problem for Together for Change.
This is a study carried out by the consultancy Reale Dalla Torre Consultores (RDT) between April 2 and 14 on 1,600 cases that showed a possible “boomerang” effect for Together for Change in case Milei enters the ballot against Horacio Rodriguez Larreta o Patricia Bullrichthe two best positioned presidential candidates.
In addition to showing a drop in the intention to vote for both the Frente de Todos and Juntos por el Cambio in April compared to October of last year, the consultancy measured four possible runoff scenarioswith Rodríguez Larreta, Bullrich, Sergio Massa for the Frente de Todos and Milei as protagonists.
There the Figures from Together for Change were winners against the Minister of Economy who today, despite the exchange and inflationary crisis, continues to appear as the best positioned in the Front of All. But when faced with the leader of Libertad Avanza, the result was a technical draw.
Although the survey has a margin of error of 3% and the percentage of undecided is still high, the projection on the possible scenarios for a second round give value to the question about if it will be convenient for Together for Change that the ruling coalition is left out of the ballot.
Elections 2023: how would Juntos por el Cambio fare in the runoff?
The RDT consultancy measured a hypothetical second round between Rodríguez Larreta and Massain which the candidate for Together for Change showed a voting intention 48% and easily surpassed the Minister of Economy, who got 38.2%. 13.8% of those consulted were undefined.
In the best runoff scenario for Together for Change, Bullrich ties with Milei
In the second stage of ballotage appeared Bullrichalso a presidential candidate for Together for Change, with a voting intention of 46% against him 39.7% who obtained the referent of the Frente de Todos and a level of undecided of 14%.
The alert signal for Together for Change and its two best-appointed leaders for the presidential elections came when they were confronted with Milei. The libertarian had a 45% voting intention against Rodríguez Larreta, who obtained 43%, with 7% undefined.
While, Bullrich fared only slightly better, but he couldn’t beat him either. In this scenario there was a tie with 47.6% for the referent of the PRO and 47% for the deputy of La Libertad Avanza, with 5.4% of respondents who expressed themselves as undecided.
The other notable data that the survey produced was about the transfer of votes. According to RDT, “the 31.4% of those who would vote for Bullrich in the PASO would opt for Milei in the general election if the PRO leader lost”. If, on the other hand, the defeated party in the primaries were Larreta, 19% of those who would vote for him would go with the libertarian in generals.
What are the ballot numbers due to?: triple tie and fall
In addition to the four possible second round scenarios, the consultant measured other dimensions of the electoral climate, among them, the intention to vote for president by political space in which it was registered almost a triple tiealthough with a large number of undecided that reached 28%.
Juntos por el Cambio led the poll with 23.3% and was followed by Frente de Todos with 20.9% and La Libertad Avanza with 20.6%. These figures reinforce the possibility that the ruling party will not enter the ballot, something that has been marking other polls. The Left Front garnered just 4.9% while 2.3% of those consulted chose the “other” option.
The main political forces suffered a fall between October 2022 and April 2023
Then the consultant added the voting intention of the pre-candidates and the most important leaders of each space. In this case, the numbers change: Together for Change rose to 31.5%, the Frente de Todos to 27.6% and Milei (the only applicant for his force) to 26.7%.
However, those numbers reflected a marked drop in the two main political forces and a growth of the libertarian, compared to the October 2022 measurement. According to the consultancy, Together for Change fell 6.1% and the Front of All 1.5%while Milei rose 3.7%.
Milei’s growth does not go unnoticed in Together for Change. The recent incorporation of the liberal economist José Luis Espertanticipated by iProfessional, largely obeys the alliance’s need to contain voters who look sympathetically to the libertarian.
What factors does Milei depend on?: This was evaluated by the consultant
The RDT consultancy evaluated that Milei’s appearance on the political scene is a “black swan” that caused “a high level of volatility in public opinion and a high dispersion of the electorate.” In turn, he indicated that “a new rift is beginning to emerge between those who see Milei’s option with a degree of hope and those who fear that her arrival in government will generate chaos.”
Based on the results of the survey, the consultant indicated as “highly probable” events that “the polarization that dominated” the 2015 and 2019 elections “between Peronism and anti-Peronism will not be replicated” in this year’s elections because “an election of thirds is visualized” and that “the third track that Massa occupied in 2015, moved to the right represented by Milei”.
However, four months after the PASO, there are still several unknowns. The consultant pointed out that Milei “has chances to win the next elections” but it depends on several factors. One of them is that he could “present teams that generate credibility” because “it is still perceived as a ‘sole company'”.
The libertarian has chances of achieving a good result but is conditioned by several factors according to the survey
The other factor is how to organize Together for Change. “If he manages to resolve his internal tensions and presents a joint program that generates certainties, his possibilities increase, above all, because a very significant volume is detected among those surveyed – 46.5% – to whom the figure of the emerging leader generates fear”stressed the consultant.
The evolution of the libertarian in the electoral field will also depend on “the decision made by those who elect him today as an expression of their anger, when they begin to listen to him and internalize carefully about his Proposals and positions on sensitive issues for society“.
